Welcome to another spring fish wrap. A break from expansion talk - finally - as we take a look at opponent number eight of the Cougs' 2010 season, the Smilin' Harbaugh's from Palo Alto. How do the Cardinal look after a big breakthrough 2009 season? Was last year's success only the beginning, or are they due for a cooling-off period in '10? Let's take a look.....
2006 seems like so long ago, doesn't it? At the time, the Cardinal were widely considered one of the worst Pac-10 teams of the modern era, laying down a 1-11 egg and looking awful in the process. They had an 11-game losing streak dating back to 2005, worst stretch for the program since 1959-60. They were outgained by an average of 168 yards per game, hands down the worst in the conference. Hard to believe that just three short years later, they would be a physical, successful eight-win program??
It's not hard to see the primary reason for the turnaround:
Jim Harbaugh has brought them out of the fog and into relevancy, and the rapid success is pretty stunning when you think about it. Again, that '06 team was awful (but now that we've seen '08 UW, '08 WSU and well, '09 WSU, maybe Stanford '06 wasn't all THAT bad??). But Harbaugh has brought something special to the program. His approach is this - Stanford shall bow to no one, not even the sacred superpower in SC, and that they will recruit with and play with any program in the country - PERIOD. He has made them all believe in what he's selling, and has completely flipped a culture of losing in amazing style.
2009: After showing some steady improvement in the prior two years of the Harbaugh era, the Cardinal finally kicked down the post-season door last year, storming to eight wins and an impressive 6-3 record in the Pac-10. They bagged some big ones along the way, beating Oregon, USC and Notre Dame last year. They did have a tough loss in the Sun Bowl, falling to Oklahoma 31-27. Stanford was without QB Andrew Luck in that game, as he broke a finger vs. Notre Dame, and they sputtered offensively for much of the second half. Overall they were outgained 477-262, as Oklahoma pulled away late.
LAST TIME vs. WSU: Stanford kicked off the '09 season by taking down the Cougs, 39-13 in Pullman. The Cardinal would put up 481 yards in Andrew Luck's first-ever NCAA start, and Toby Gerhart would run for 121 yards and a couple of TD's as Stanford won convincingly.
The Cougs did make it somewhat interesting, cutting the lead to 22-10 in the third quarter, but a kickoff return for a TD by Chris Owusu would push the lead to 29-10, and it was pretty much done at that point.
FANS ARE: What do you think?? Wouldn't you be flippin' THRILLED right now if you were in Cardinal shoes?? Thrilled might be an understatement.....but maybe, just maybe, a wee bit nervous about their charismatic, successful coach eyeing "greener pastures"? Last year the rumor mill was churning out a few whoppers, including Harbaugh to....Kansas?
Much was made about the pic of Harbaugh rocking the KU pullover while embracing his sweetie. Turns out that Harbaugh's significant other is from KC, so there you go. Anyway, it was much ado about nothing as Harbaugh officially signed a three-year contract extension, keeping him in Palo Alto until at least 2014.
But it's the nature of the beast folks. Young, successful coaches from non-traditional NCAA superpowers are going to be desired by many who seek out their next program savior, and Harbaugh's name is going to be at the top of the list of every athletic director in the country.
Trust us on this one, coming from a WSU point-of-view.....
'09 OFFENSIVE RATINGS: #11 in the nation and 2nd in the conference in scoring offense, averaging 35.5 points per game. They were #2 in the Pac and #11 in rushing offense too, averaging 218.2 yards per game (not a surprise, given Toby Gerhart's presence in the backfield). But the passing offense sputtered a bit, at 209.4 yards per game (8th in the conference, #70 in the country). But overall, Stanford was the number one offense in the conference, averaging 427.6 yards per game.
OFFENSIVE SYSTEM: They are best classified as a west coast offense type of scheme, with a running back, fullback, tight end and two wide receivers among the starting skill guys.
2010 RETURNING OFFENSIVE STARTERS: While they do lose Toby Gerhart, Stanford still brings back eight starters on offense.
TOP OFFENSIVE PLAYER: With Gerhart gone, this one's easy. QB Andrew Luck is the choice.
Luck was a highly touted recruit from Texas back in '07, regarded as a top-ten QB nationally by all the recruiting services and a huge "get" for Captain Comeback. After a redshirt season in '08, Luck didn't disappoint, throwing for 2,575 yards and an extremely efficient 13-4 TD to INT ratio. To think that a redshirt frosh QB would only throw four INT's on 288 passing attempts is absolutely remarkable, and you can see why NFL scouts are so gaga for Luck. Heck, Mel Kiper already has Luck as a serious threat to be the top pick in the NFL draft next year, right there with Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett of Arkansas as the top QB prospects in the college game! Luck led the Pac-10 in passing efficiency, and even ran for 354 yards, showing excellent mobility for a guy who is 6-4, 234. He looks great on tape too:
Great arm, size, excellent feet, he's pretty much everything. With Gerhart gone, and with a full stable of receivers coming back in '10, it isn't hard to project over 3,000 yards and TD passes well into the 20's before it's all said and done. But Stanford fans may want to enjoy him while they can, because this could be it for the third-year sophomore.
'09 DEFENSIVE RATINGS: #69 in the country and 8th in the conference in scoring D, at 26.5 ppg allowed. OK against the run, #55 in the country and 7th in the conference at 137.9 yards per game on the ground. But it was a struggle through the air, #110 in the nation and 8th in the conference at 264.8 yards per game in the air. Overall, the total defense numbers weren't great either - #90 in the nation, and 9th in the conference with 402.7 yards per game. Ouch.
DEFENSIVE SCHEME: After struggling so badly on D last year, Harbaugh shook things up. Stanford will make big changes this year, going to a 3-4 defense with new d-coordinator Vic Fangio among five new assistants. Fangio has a ton of NFL experience, 24 years in the league and his last gig was the linebackers coach of the Baltimore Ravens. Needless to say, the guy knows a little something about the 3-4!
2010 DEFENSIVE RETURNING STARTERS: Seven starters return on D.
TOP DEFENSIVE PLAYER: While safety Delano Howell returns as the number two tackler on the team, and should be an all-conference candidate, the top player on D for 2010 has to be junior linebacker Thomas Keiser.
Keiser is well put-together at 6-5, 249, and he led the Cardinal D in tackles for loss (15) and sacks (nine). Keiser was first-team All-Pac-10 last year, and was a headache rushing the passer from the outside. However, last year Keiser had his hand down as a defensive end. This year, Keiser moves to outside linebacker in the new 3-4 scheme. But they will still cut him loose on the outside, and he should be one of the top pass rushers in the Pac-10 for 2010.
TOP THREE POST-SPRING QUESTIONS:
1) WILL 2010 BE A TOBY TERRIFIC HANGOVER? Let's face it, Toby Gerhart was really, really special last year. 1871 rushing yards, 28 TD's, and nearly won the Heisman fergawdsakes. You just don't know what will happen without big #7 sledgehammering his way through Pac-10 defenses on a weekly basis. And it's hard to know what they'll get from the projected senior starter as Gerhart's replacement, Jeremy Stewart. Stewart did have 303 yards rushing last year, on 5.4 yards per carry, but he's not exactly Gerhart.
But there is hope. Obviously Luck is big-time, and has some good tools to work with. And he'll have a lot of help, as six of the top eight pass-catchers from 2009 back in '10. But maybe the biggest reason for optimism on offense is the offensive line. Stanford allowed just seven sacks - ALL YEAR - last season, and they were regarded as one of the top offensive lines in the country. They lose just one starter from up front, and are led by all-conference candidates in Bellevue's David DeCastro at guard and tackle Jonathan Martin. While Gerhart is a big loss, well, it's hard to imagine a team better equipped to handle the loss of a superstar like Stanford!
2) IS THERE REALLY HOPE THE DEFENSE WILL BE BETTER? Sure. I mean they are coming off a year in which they were 90th in the nation, so there is nowhere to go but up. But the new 3-4 scheme should be something to watch, but then again, there could be a real transition period. Keiser of course moves to outside linebacker, and there could be some early struggles to pick things up. But on the other side of Keiser will be another converted player, as defensive end Chase Thomas from last year moves to outside linebacker as well. They are also moving some guys around, as fullback Owen Marecic will play some inside linebacker. But there is some good news - Shayne Skov is back at inside linebacker after a breakthrough frosh season last year (62 tackles as a true frosh).
Skov is a real darkhorse all-conference candidate for 2010 and is definitely a guy to watch in this new 3-4 attack.
3) AND THE SCHEDULE? Dicey. Six home, six away, and the start looks tough. After a tuneup game vs. Sac State on 9/4, they go to UCLA to open Pac-10 play. They get Wake Forest at home, looking for revenge after a weird loss to the Demon Decons last year, where they had a big lead get away from them late in a 24-17 loss. But then they go to Notre Dame and to Oregon over the next two weeks, before hosting SC on 10/9! Phil Steele ranks Stanford's schedule the 34th most difficult in the country, but those first six games are going to a long way to how things play out in '10.
WSU FB SEZ DOT-DOT-DOT.....So much has changed since '06, but one of the biggest things is how strong Stanford has become at home. Stanford is now 10-2 the last two seasons in front of the home crowd, losing just one home game in each of the last two years. They have beaten some good ones at home too in that span, including Oregon State and Arizona in '08, and UW, UCLA, Oregon and Notre Dame in '09.....While everything is lining up for Stanford to have a winning season, the very idea of consecutive winning seasons is pretty foreign to the Cardinal faithful. Stanford hasn't had back-to-back winning seasons in 15 years ('95-'96).....Stanford's been a tough opponent for the Cougs under Paul Wulff. The Cardinal have outscored WSU 97-13 the last two years, including a nightmare 58-0 loss the last time the Cougs traveled to Palo Alto......One thing you have to give credit to Harbaugh has been his approach to SC. Of course, they shocked the world when they beat SC in '07, regarded as one of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport when they won 24-23 in LA as a 41-point underdog! But overall, Harbaugh finished with a 2-1 record over Pete Carroll, which includes a humiliating 55-21 win in LA last season. The 55 points allowed by SC was the most points allowed in school history.....Recruiting has been fantastic under Harbaugh, and they are out in front of the game this year with the early commits. Stanford already has 18 verbal commits, none worse than the 3-star variety, and they are from all over the country, including California and Washington in the west to across the country in states like Texas, Oklahoma, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Stanford has finished 24th or better nationally the last two years (24th in 2010, 15th in 2009). Not only is Harbaugh delivering a strong pitch, but it's well-received across the country. Of course it doesn't hurt to have that Ivy League of the west-style education in your arsenal when you walk into living rooms from coast to coast, but still, Harbaugh's pitch has to be as good as any recruiter in the country.
For more 2010 spring fish wraps, profiling the 2010 opponents on the WSU schedule, check out this link.
Cause Paul Wulff and Chris Ball own Florida, baby.
Word courtesy of Cougfan is that Coach Wulff and Coach Ball have added 3 more verbals from the FLA to their 2011 recruiting class. It's true - WR's Henry Eaddy and Isiah Myers, and LB Darryl Monroe have all pledged Crimson today. Holy smokes! The artucle is premium, so you'll have to pay to get the details, but that now makes four commitments from the Sunshine State this year(Spencer Waseem just committed the other day). Just what on earth are these coaches cookin?! Whatever it is, the recruits are certainly buying it. We may change our mascot to a manatee!
So while the majority appear to be cool with the new Pac-12, a lot has yet to be decided. You know, the TV network and TV contracts, the new Pac-12 divisions, how they are going to share revenue, etc. I guess the only things that are officially in place are Colorado and Utah added to the mix, but everything else will come together as we roll forward.
However, not everyone thinks this was all that great an idea. And you can include former Coug A.D. Jim Sterk among those who isn't exactly enamored with the new conference, especially without the super-sized version that would have included the Big 12 south. Per the latest from the San Diego Tribune:
The interesting call is Colorado. It’s doubtful the Pac-10 would have gone after Colorado so quickly if not convinced the others would follow like lemmings. In getting the Buffs and Utes, the Pac-10 didn’t come close to what it expected. The Big 12 did better than hold serve.
“I’m not so sure they would have taken Colorado,” Sterk says. “I know in the past Colorado hasn’t been enough.
It's really hard to know for sure, but there have been a lot of strong rumors over the years that Colorado had been on the radar. Maybe not just as the lone new member of the conference, but Larry Scott has mentioned that they have been looking at Colorado for some time. It was even mentioned in the press conference when Colorado was announced as the newest member.
Yet Sterk still believes that the latest additions won't be that big of a deal:
“I was on the TV committee the last go-round, six or seven years ago, and I asked an executive with ESPNif the Pac-10 should expand. He said, ‘Without Texas, it isn’t worth it.’ The Pac-10 currently has 19 percent of the marketplace. Adding those two schools, it possibly will be at 20 (percent) to 21 percent. That’s not big enough to drive the needle.”
You know, that was likely the truth six or seven years ago. But is it only about marketplace percentage when you try to put value on a TV deal? Or will there be other things in play?
"Colorado and Utah don't add that much," said A.J. Maestas, president of Chicago-based Navigate Marketing, which helps schools assess their market value. "At the end of the day, it's about households, ratings, the total market that you reach. Although they're great markets, because there are some real strong markets in the Pac-10 like Los Angeles, you really don't add to the total average market. A little bit, but not a ton."
OK, so Sterk is definitely right on things like marketplace percentage. But that isn't where the road to billions comes to an end. Not even close:
With the addition of CU and Utah, Navigate projects the Pac-10's next TV deal should be worth about $14.5 million per member school. That's nearly three times the Pac-10's current deal and more than $5 million more than CU received last year from the Big 12.
Well, Ok, so if the marketplace percentage doesn't move the needle, why are the projections of $14.5 million per school accurate?
Here's why: It doesn't account for the wild bargaining that will likely take place between competing networks. Much has changed in the past five years. The number of sports channels has multiplied. Most professional sports have their own TV network.
There is an ESPNU and an ESPN3. Comcast has merged with NBC-Universal. Conferences and schools offer bigger threats to start their own TV networks, as have the Big Ten and Mountain West, and as the Texas Longhorns plan to do.
AT&T and Verizon also have become cable providers. AT&T now reaches 20 million homes, and Verizon reaches 15 million. That's a lot of money to advertisers, meaning that's a lot of money to conferences offering the games.
That, and starting a football championship game, will likely overcome a Pac-10 fan base that's less consumed than those in the Big 12, Southeastern Conference and Big Ten.
I don't think a lot of this is pure "news" to many of you, but it really is amazing how much the NCAA football landscape has changed since Sterk was on that TV committee. There was no Big Ten network at the time, which is a now a cash cow for all Big Ten members. And the new, super-amazing SEC TV deal with CBS wasn't in place yet. It's a night-and-day difference where we currently sit compared to where we used to be. So there is no doubt that there is real hope here that the big TV dollars are coming.
Meanwhile, SI.com did a story last summer on the TV deals among the different conferences. For a quick eye-opener on a Monday morning, just take a look at how much money is out there right now among the models for TV contracts, the SEC and Big Ten, and compare it to the Pac-10:
SEC
• ESPN: 15 years, $2.25 billion
• CBS: 15 years, $825 million
(Both deals run through 2023-2024.)
Total: $3.075 BILLION
Big Ten
• Big Ten Network: 25 years, $2.8 billion* through 2031-32 *projected revenue per SI.com
• ABC/ESPN: 10 years, $1 billion through 2016
• CBS: 10 years, $20 million for basketball through 2018-19
Total: Just over $3.8 BILLION
And where does the Pac-10 sit right now, from the committee Sterk was part of back in the day?
Pac-10
• ABC/ESPN: Five years, $125 million for football
• Fox Sports Net: Five years, $97 million for football
• ABC/ESPN: Six years, $52.5 million for basketball
(All run through 2011-12.)
Total: $274.5 MILLION
See why they were so hot-n-bothered to expand? See why the timing was so critical? Just doing the basic math, you realize the Pac-12 as a conference is roughly TWO BILLION behind the super TV deals, right? Phew.
It's going to be interesting, to say the least, what happens with the TV negotiations. But no matter what, it is hard to dispute the idea that the new contract is going to be something big!
One last thing out there this Monday morning:
WSU landed a verbal commit from Florida, defensive back Spencer Waseem from Apopka, FL. Waseem is regarded as a big hitter with good speed, reportedly a 4.47 40-time.
Waseem hasn't yet been to Pullman, which might raise an eyebrow or two that a Florida kid would be willing to commit without seeing the campus? But he plans to take a visit this summer, so here's hoping it works out. Waseem had offers from Colorado State and Marshall, but the interest from a lot of other BCS schools was starting to percolate. Here is a good write-up on Waseem, from the Orlando Sentinel a few weeks ago.
That's it for now. Enjoy your Monday, and as always, GO COUGS!
I don't know about you, but, sitting from where WSU is right now with our own stadium, I can't help but look at Utah's home venue and see some resemblance to what Martin Stadium might look like.....eventually?
Nice.
One thing that seems a little unclear is where, exactly, Utah fits in on the academic side of the ball? The Utes were ranked #126 in the country by US News and World Report, ahead of only Oregon State in the new conference. Not exactly progress on the academics, is it? But when you read the press release yesterday by the Pac-12, you'd think we'd be adding a significant academic presence in the conference:
Utah’s academic and athletic profile is a great fit for the Pac-10 Conference. The University’s high academic excellence ranks it among the top-100 universities in the world and is the only institution in the state to earn a top-tier ranking from the Academic Ranking of World Universities, and has done so for the last five years.
Utah is among a network of 52 consortia of universities leading the way in space-related research, including the University of Arizona, Arizona State University, the University of California, Oregon State University, UCLA, USC, Washington and future member Colorado.
In addition, Utah ranks among the top public research universities in the nation, with particular distinction in medicine, genetics and engineering. Acclaimed faculty member Mario R. Capecchi was a 2007 Noble Prize winner and will fit in to the roster of 25 Nobel laureates from California and other Pac-10 institutions.
Sounds good enough to me! Anyway, on to business. As you are probably aware, much has been made about the money side to this new Pac-12. You know, how the TV money was going to go up considerably from where the Pac-10 stands today, as written up nicely by Jon Wilner yesterday? From the early "guesstimates", the feel is that it could be up to $14 million or so per Pac-12 team, purely in the TV side of things. That is, of course, if you subscribe to the theory of EQUAL SHARES amongst the 12 teams??
Our own A.D. sure hopes that we share and share alike....but that may not be what happens.
Bruce (Virginia Beach): The current PAC-10 TV contracts have their share of critics. What is your vision of a contract package that would better benefit the conference and our Cougs? Does the Commisioner seem to share that vision? Welcome home, and GO COUGS!
Bill Moos: Bruce, my hope is that the conference will adopt a formula that will share tevelvsion revenue equally among its member institutions. This is the model used by the Big Ten, the SEC, and the NFL. In my opinion, it's the only way to assure parity in the conference and also provide the overall strength needed to be successful.
What would be really nice is if the Pac-12 commissioner felt the same way.....read on for more.
So I know some of you - myself included - thought the idea of the northwest Pac-12 schools losing out on playing the LA schools on an annual basis would be a big deal. It is now very clear that the new Pac-12 alignments are going to be North-South, as reported and acknowledged several times over the last couple of days. The "zipper" scheme that some have floated, which would split the state schools in opposite divisions, appears to have lost out to geography. The picture above does a nice job showing the new divisions (the left is Pac-12 South, on the right is Pac-12 North. And thanks to "westcoastute" from the Cougfan message boards for the picture).
Anyway, the North isn't going to come away empty-handed in one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. California is right there with Texas and Florida in terms of producing BCS-level talent on an annual basis, that much is no secret. SI.com did a big story last year, breaking down exactly where the talent resides in the country. Having at least a guaranteed road game against the Bay Area schools is a big win for the NW schools, no doubt about it.
Isiah Barton - Fresno, CA Wade Jacobson - Gilroy, CA Rickey Galvin - Berkeley, CA Kristoff Williams - Antioch, CA Marquess Wilson - Tulare, CA Robert Jiles - Pittsburg, CA Tracy Clark - Pittsburg, CA Bobby Ratliff - Etiwanda, CA Brandon Goldon - Covina, CA Damante Horton - Oakland, CA Deone Bucannon - Fairfield, CA Tyrone Duckett - Alameda, CA Steven Hoffart - Oroville, CA Devontae Butler-Booker - Sacramento, CA Kalafitoni Pole - Union City, CA David Gonzales - Fresno, CA Matt Simmons - Torrance, CA
That's 17 kids from California, just in last year's class. Now, not all of the Cali kids are from northern California. But notice the trend of where the majority are coming from? Pittsburg, Fresno, Oakland, Sacramento, Antioch, Gilroy, etc. It's pretty clear having the Bay Area schools in the same division means a lot to Paul Wulff and Washington State!
The conventional wisdom is that Pac-10 schools from the Northwest need an annual trip to southern California for recruiting purposes. In the most likely model for the new Pac-10 -- a North-South division split -- that won't happen.
The reaction to that possibility from Northwest coaches?
Sum it like this: "neh."
"We've all got to be open for change because it's coming anyway," Washington State coach Paul Wulff said. "You've got to roll with it."
Oregon's Chip Kelly, who was busy watching film of New Mexico, was completely neutral on that matter.
"We'll just line up and play whoever they want us to play," he said. "It's not like we won't get enough exposure. Just tell me my schedule and let's go play."
And even the coach who could arguably be losing the most in all this in LA recruiting, UW's head guy who used to be USC's lead recruiter in SoCal?
Said Washington's Steve Sarkisian, "We'll get down there enough."
And you think about it, well, it makes sense. Nine conference games, five against your own division, four against the other side, will keep things regular enough. You will only miss two schools per year in the South, and they can mix it up enough to hopefully see a road trip to LA on an every-other-year basis.
Let us add one thing to the mix. It was mentioned in the article, but there was a rumor making the rounds that Colorado and Utah were at one time projected to be in the Pac-12 NORTH. That would have removed California entirely from the NW schools, and that was something that was going to make 'em all scream. But that was very early on in the process. Now, even the Colorado AD has confirmed that being in the South was a big pull for Colorado to join, based on their large alumni base in the LA area.
The whole thing is coming together nicely, isn't it?
Some other stuff out there:
Bob Condotta asks what will they call the new conference? He's hearing Pac-12, like you might assume. Keeping the PAC in the name is important, but you might as well get the count of schools right? Can't say that about the Big 12 though, they are going to keep their name for "branding" purposes....even though they have 10 schools. Whatever. They should just be called "BIG TEX" after the way that all went down.
So that’s $150-160 million, or about $13 million per school — and the figures do not include BCS payouts and NCAA Tournament money.
(By the way, Navigate Marketing’s revenue models for the Pac-12 peg the per-school total even higher: $14.5 million.)
Yes, yes, yes: That’s a monumental increase over the Pac-10’s current per-team annual payout, which is $8-9 million for football and basketball TV, bowls and March Madness units.
Not the $20 million we hoped for when all this stuff began rolling out on the rumor mill, but still, $13 million per team for just the new TV deals and title game sounds good. HOWEVER, that's if we have an equal, 12-team split of the pie. As Bill Moos mentioned yesterday in his KJR interview, right now there is not equal shares per team. But that is something that they are hoping/expecting to happen with this new expansion. The SEC has been winning BCS titles lately, and they currently split it all up equally, as does the Big Ten. The Pac-12 should fall in line.
Anyway, if that $13 million is the floor in all this, then again, WSU wins, pure and simple. We'll say it again - be happy we have a seat at the table!
Premium article, but apparently we landed a pretty...
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