| 29 July 2010
So, Pac-10 media day is today, and it's time for even more interviews and such amongst the head coaches of this here conference. While these things can be a little tedious at times, you generally can get a few nuggets unearthed here and there, such as player injuries/suspensions/whatever. But for the most part, it should be a lot of talking points-style interviews and answers you have probably heard at some point or another along the way. Who knows though, maybe we'll get a surprise this year? Maybe a few shots from Neuheisel at USC? And who knows what Lane Kiffin is going to say, or who he'll piss off next?
For those of you wondering, coach Wulff and senior d-end Kevin Kooyman are representing Wazzu, and they should do quite well answering the barrage of "how can you possibly expect to win a conference game this year?" type questions.
Anyway, since it's media day and the writers will turn in their picks for the upcoming year, and since our own Sutra weighed in on Tuesday, I thought the rest of us should lend our two cents on how, exactly, we think the conference will shake out this year. All I can say is that I picked Cal to win it a year ago, and resisted the temptation to pick Oregon (and yes, Sutra did pick Oregon last year.....but IN A TIE WITH USC for the title! BURN! Check out the post from a year ago here.).
Now excuse me while we get our thinking caps on and try to hash this out, all to the soothing tunes of Lisa Simpson rocking the little brown jug:
Read on for all our picks for 2010 - Sean, LucasCoug and Longball - and with a link to each team's spring Fish Wrap to boot:
First of all, it has to be said that after the top two teams, one could make an argument for ANY of the teams finishing pretty much anywhere from 3 to 8! I believe it is that wide open in the middle, and you can make a legit argument for any of those teams. So here goes:
1. Oregon - I can't help but pick Oregon. I know, Masoli is gone to wherever after effing up time and again, and he really did have a great feel for that offense. But I think Oregon will be OK at QB even with some inexperience at position, no matter if it's Nate Costa or Darron Thomas. If he doesn't win the job outright in fall camp, I personally believe Thomas will be the starter within the first month of the season, and he will do Dennis Dixon-type things in that QB friendly, spread-em-out offense loaded with speed and experience everywhere you look. Add in that they bring back nine starters on offense AND on defense, and folks, this team is absolutely loaded. And they play Stanford in Eugene, as well as Arizona, so I'm calling a repeat for the Quack Attack.
2. Stanford - Speaking of Stanford, they are going to be REALLY good. They will likely be picked down the ladder a bit, based solely on Toby Terrific taking his wares to the NFL, but there are still so many good pieces in place. I am big on their O-line, and Harbaugh's recruiting the last three years will really show through in 2010. They won't win at Oregon though, and that will be the difference from a Rose Bowl bid. But they will be up here, looking down on the rest of the conference.
3. USC - USC is hardest to peg, and I agree with Sutra that they will finish lower than their talent level. The Kiffin show is a distraction right now, and lost in all the sideshow-ness of it all is that Kiffin was a rather ordinary 7-6 last year, his only year as a BCS head coach, and just 5-15 as the head guy in Oakland (I agree, it's NOT FAIR to even look at anyone's record coaching under Al Davis!). But I guess I'm missing the "magic" that Kiffin is going to bring to SC this year? This is a team that lost their rockstar head coach in Pete Carroll, a team that still lost 4 games last year. They return just 12 starters total, one of the lowest amongst all Pac-10 teams. There is some sort of formula gamblers use in Vegas for early-season predictions, and they tend to focus in on 1) returning starters, and 2) new coordinators/schemes. If you have a lot of guys back and stability at the coaching staff, you tend to start out well. If not, you could be in trouble and you better be on UPSET ALERT! They do have an easier-than-usual schedule, as they get Oregon and Cal at home and don't have that tough road game like at Auburn, Arkansas or Ohio State (Hawaii, Minnesota, Virginia and Notre Dame are the OOC games). So, while they have upper-division talent, and it's good enough for a top-3 finish, would something like 7-5 really surprise anyone, now that they are starting over with the coaching staff as well as facing a brutal probation period and no bowl game for this year?
4. Arizona - The Mildcats could be THE surprise team of the whole league this year. Tons of starters back, including a QB who really shined once he took over in Nick Foles. Very much in the same manner that Oregon clicked when Masoli grabbed the reins back in '08 and all of '09, AZ looked great with Foles leading the way as a perfect fit in that passing attack. They have some holes on D though, and while they'll win some shootouts, they won't have enough defensively to finish in the top two. They'll get UW and USC at home too, which should be key games to decide #'s 3 through 5 in the Pac.
5. UW - The Montlake Jake's come in at #5, and I think that is about right. Yet again, you could picture them getting into the top 3, if a few things break their way. But a word of caution - expectations are way, way, way up right now(really?). KJR's Dave Mahler is already saying that if Jake Locker wins the Heisman, it's the greatest single accomplishment in Seattle sports history, ahead of Griffey's MVP, Ichiro's MVP/Rookie of the Year/Single season hits record, and even ahead of Shaun Alexander's NFL TD rushing record and NFL MVP award! Yes, the hype has been set to CRAZY right now, and I don't know, you have to wonder if it's a little out of whack for a team that won a total of 5 games the last two years? I know, they have their swagger back and looked strong at the close of the season. Locker's senior year, starters returning everywhere you look, etc. But they did have some blowout losses to teams that were clearly better than them last year in Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State. I believe they take the next step and win at least seven games this year, but I would cool down a bit on the Heisman/Rose Bowl talk. Especially when you consider the team has to go to USC, AZ, Cal and Oregon, and they host a loaded top ten Nebraska team that will be gunning for #10.
6. Oregon State - The Beavs, oh, how I want to pick them higher than 6th! And you know, in the end they will be better than this most likely. They too return a lot of starters, eight on both sides of the ball, and of course, the Rodgers brothers, who are just a headache to deal with on a weekly basis. But they don't have Sean Canfield to kick around anymore, and for the first time in a while they roll with an underclassman QB in Ryan Katz who has only played in extremely limited action. Like it or not, he'll have growing pains. I think they get off to another lousy start too, with a really tough early season schedule, and they'll be forgotten. But come November, would it be a shocker if they were one of the hottest teams in the conference?? I'll pick them sixth, but I can easily see a move to third or fourth place this year.
7. CAL - Cal is going to be the biggest disappointment of the season. And we'll say it again - the Bears ARE who we thought they were! Something, I don't know, seems "off" with them, doesn't it? I love Shane Vereen, and I think he'll make folks forget about Jahvid Best in a hurry, if he didn't already do that with a big finish to 2009. And overall they return enough on O - eight starters - to think that they'll still score points. But I am not a big fan of Kevin Riley, in that he won't kill his team with mistakes, but he doesn't move the needle in the "WOW did you see that??" kind of way either. And let's face it, some people refer to him more for his misses in the big games vs. taking care of business when he's expected to vs. weaker opponents. Seven home games will help, but the road trips to SC, Arizona and Oregon State will be tough. Add it all up and I think they take a step back.
8. UCLA - UCLA's #8, but they could certainly make a move up the charts. They did finish '09 strong, winning four of their last five including their bowl game. I could easily see them settle in around 4th or 5th, as I think they'll be improved on offense with Kevin Prince and seven starters total coming back. But the D lost some really good players, and return just five total starters from last year. I think the D will have too many holes, and the offense while improved won't score quite enough to see them get above Cal or Oregon State.
9T. ASU - ASU is going to struggle again, and this is going to be the end of Erickson's run. The offense brings back just four starters, with a new coordinator and a complete question mark at QB. And as bad-ass as ASU's defense was last year, and Vontaze Burfict is back to crush people again, they only bring back four starters on that side of the ball as well. Add all the losses into a brutal road schedule (Wisconsin, Oregon State, UW, Cal, SC and AZ), and ASU looks to be in big trouble for 2010.
9T.You-know-who - Finally, the Cougs. Let's say it loud - and say it proud - WSU WILL WIN a conference game in '10! Which game? Ummm, well.....that's the hard part. ASU is going to be down, but even in the best of times WSU has struggled to win in Tempe. It's difficult to say where said win will come from, but somewhere along the way they will get a break. Even the worst Pac-10 teams in modern history figured out how to connect the dots and win a conference game every couple of years. But more than the W's and L's, just rest assured that the worst is behind us, and key in on the weekly improvement on both sides of the ball. This isn't the year to get freaked out on W's and L's! That is reserved for 2011, when some around here believe they could be sniffing bowl eligibility again. But for now, look for interesting, competitive football week in and week out.
Moving on to LucasCoug's picks.
For those of you wondering, coach Wulff and senior d-end Kevin Kooyman are representing Wazzu, and they should do quite well answering the barrage of "how can you possibly expect to win a conference game this year?" type questions.
Anyway, since it's media day and the writers will turn in their picks for the upcoming year, and since our own Sutra weighed in on Tuesday, I thought the rest of us should lend our two cents on how, exactly, we think the conference will shake out this year. All I can say is that I picked Cal to win it a year ago, and resisted the temptation to pick Oregon (and yes, Sutra did pick Oregon last year.....but IN A TIE WITH USC for the title! BURN! Check out the post from a year ago here.).
Now excuse me while we get our thinking caps on and try to hash this out, all to the soothing tunes of Lisa Simpson rocking the little brown jug:
Read on for all our picks for 2010 - Sean, LucasCoug and Longball - and with a link to each team's spring Fish Wrap to boot:
First of all, it has to be said that after the top two teams, one could make an argument for ANY of the teams finishing pretty much anywhere from 3 to 8! I believe it is that wide open in the middle, and you can make a legit argument for any of those teams. So here goes:
1. Oregon - I can't help but pick Oregon. I know, Masoli is gone to wherever after effing up time and again, and he really did have a great feel for that offense. But I think Oregon will be OK at QB even with some inexperience at position, no matter if it's Nate Costa or Darron Thomas. If he doesn't win the job outright in fall camp, I personally believe Thomas will be the starter within the first month of the season, and he will do Dennis Dixon-type things in that QB friendly, spread-em-out offense loaded with speed and experience everywhere you look. Add in that they bring back nine starters on offense AND on defense, and folks, this team is absolutely loaded. And they play Stanford in Eugene, as well as Arizona, so I'm calling a repeat for the Quack Attack.
2. Stanford - Speaking of Stanford, they are going to be REALLY good. They will likely be picked down the ladder a bit, based solely on Toby Terrific taking his wares to the NFL, but there are still so many good pieces in place. I am big on their O-line, and Harbaugh's recruiting the last three years will really show through in 2010. They won't win at Oregon though, and that will be the difference from a Rose Bowl bid. But they will be up here, looking down on the rest of the conference.
3. USC - USC is hardest to peg, and I agree with Sutra that they will finish lower than their talent level. The Kiffin show is a distraction right now, and lost in all the sideshow-ness of it all is that Kiffin was a rather ordinary 7-6 last year, his only year as a BCS head coach, and just 5-15 as the head guy in Oakland (I agree, it's NOT FAIR to even look at anyone's record coaching under Al Davis!). But I guess I'm missing the "magic" that Kiffin is going to bring to SC this year? This is a team that lost their rockstar head coach in Pete Carroll, a team that still lost 4 games last year. They return just 12 starters total, one of the lowest amongst all Pac-10 teams. There is some sort of formula gamblers use in Vegas for early-season predictions, and they tend to focus in on 1) returning starters, and 2) new coordinators/schemes. If you have a lot of guys back and stability at the coaching staff, you tend to start out well. If not, you could be in trouble and you better be on UPSET ALERT! They do have an easier-than-usual schedule, as they get Oregon and Cal at home and don't have that tough road game like at Auburn, Arkansas or Ohio State (Hawaii, Minnesota, Virginia and Notre Dame are the OOC games). So, while they have upper-division talent, and it's good enough for a top-3 finish, would something like 7-5 really surprise anyone, now that they are starting over with the coaching staff as well as facing a brutal probation period and no bowl game for this year?
4. Arizona - The Mildcats could be THE surprise team of the whole league this year. Tons of starters back, including a QB who really shined once he took over in Nick Foles. Very much in the same manner that Oregon clicked when Masoli grabbed the reins back in '08 and all of '09, AZ looked great with Foles leading the way as a perfect fit in that passing attack. They have some holes on D though, and while they'll win some shootouts, they won't have enough defensively to finish in the top two. They'll get UW and USC at home too, which should be key games to decide #'s 3 through 5 in the Pac.
5. UW - The Montlake Jake's come in at #5, and I think that is about right. Yet again, you could picture them getting into the top 3, if a few things break their way. But a word of caution - expectations are way, way, way up right now(really?). KJR's Dave Mahler is already saying that if Jake Locker wins the Heisman, it's the greatest single accomplishment in Seattle sports history, ahead of Griffey's MVP, Ichiro's MVP/Rookie of the Year/Single season hits record, and even ahead of Shaun Alexander's NFL TD rushing record and NFL MVP award! Yes, the hype has been set to CRAZY right now, and I don't know, you have to wonder if it's a little out of whack for a team that won a total of 5 games the last two years? I know, they have their swagger back and looked strong at the close of the season. Locker's senior year, starters returning everywhere you look, etc. But they did have some blowout losses to teams that were clearly better than them last year in Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State. I believe they take the next step and win at least seven games this year, but I would cool down a bit on the Heisman/Rose Bowl talk. Especially when you consider the team has to go to USC, AZ, Cal and Oregon, and they host a loaded top ten Nebraska team that will be gunning for #10.
6. Oregon State - The Beavs, oh, how I want to pick them higher than 6th! And you know, in the end they will be better than this most likely. They too return a lot of starters, eight on both sides of the ball, and of course, the Rodgers brothers, who are just a headache to deal with on a weekly basis. But they don't have Sean Canfield to kick around anymore, and for the first time in a while they roll with an underclassman QB in Ryan Katz who has only played in extremely limited action. Like it or not, he'll have growing pains. I think they get off to another lousy start too, with a really tough early season schedule, and they'll be forgotten. But come November, would it be a shocker if they were one of the hottest teams in the conference?? I'll pick them sixth, but I can easily see a move to third or fourth place this year.
7. CAL - Cal is going to be the biggest disappointment of the season. And we'll say it again - the Bears ARE who we thought they were! Something, I don't know, seems "off" with them, doesn't it? I love Shane Vereen, and I think he'll make folks forget about Jahvid Best in a hurry, if he didn't already do that with a big finish to 2009. And overall they return enough on O - eight starters - to think that they'll still score points. But I am not a big fan of Kevin Riley, in that he won't kill his team with mistakes, but he doesn't move the needle in the "WOW did you see that??" kind of way either. And let's face it, some people refer to him more for his misses in the big games vs. taking care of business when he's expected to vs. weaker opponents. Seven home games will help, but the road trips to SC, Arizona and Oregon State will be tough. Add it all up and I think they take a step back.
8. UCLA - UCLA's #8, but they could certainly make a move up the charts. They did finish '09 strong, winning four of their last five including their bowl game. I could easily see them settle in around 4th or 5th, as I think they'll be improved on offense with Kevin Prince and seven starters total coming back. But the D lost some really good players, and return just five total starters from last year. I think the D will have too many holes, and the offense while improved won't score quite enough to see them get above Cal or Oregon State.
9T. ASU - ASU is going to struggle again, and this is going to be the end of Erickson's run. The offense brings back just four starters, with a new coordinator and a complete question mark at QB. And as bad-ass as ASU's defense was last year, and Vontaze Burfict is back to crush people again, they only bring back four starters on that side of the ball as well. Add all the losses into a brutal road schedule (Wisconsin, Oregon State, UW, Cal, SC and AZ), and ASU looks to be in big trouble for 2010.
9T.You-know-who - Finally, the Cougs. Let's say it loud - and say it proud - WSU WILL WIN a conference game in '10! Which game? Ummm, well.....that's the hard part. ASU is going to be down, but even in the best of times WSU has struggled to win in Tempe. It's difficult to say where said win will come from, but somewhere along the way they will get a break. Even the worst Pac-10 teams in modern history figured out how to connect the dots and win a conference game every couple of years. But more than the W's and L's, just rest assured that the worst is behind us, and key in on the weekly improvement on both sides of the ball. This isn't the year to get freaked out on W's and L's! That is reserved for 2011, when some around here believe they could be sniffing bowl eligibility again. But for now, look for interesting, competitive football week in and week out.
Moving on to LucasCoug's picks.
Happy Thursday to you Cougs, LC here. I know last week on our Twitter I mentioned how I dove headfirst into my Phil Steele magazine. Well by headfirst, I only meant the few pages covering the Cougs and not quite the rest of the conference yet. Things kinda fell off when I was tied up with a wedding on Friday and Saturday and out of town guests on Sunday and Monday. But anyways, here is my pre-season look at the conference.
1) Stanford: I am going to stick with Sutra's pick and keep the Furd at the top of the list. Mr. Luck will be drafted ahead of Mr. Locker after the Trees return to the Rose Bowl after a decade's absence. Harbaugh bolts for either the NFL or his alma mater, the University of Michigan after the Blue can Rich Rodriguez.
2) Oregon: Speed kills, and each year the Zeroes seem to get faster. Even with Masoli gone, I expect to see the Ducks beat up on a lots of teams with their offense. Not sure how I feel about their defense yet. I'm just happy to see them relegated to San Antonio come bowl season.
3) Arizona: I like Nick Foles. I like Nick Foles a lot. The Mildcats return two solid running backs in Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin. I've seen a few pundits pick them as a Darkhorse and a few others to pick them to fall off. The loss of WR Delashaun Dean to weapons charges will hurt, as he was a pretty good player for them. Can the defense hold it together? One thing I am excited for, is to watch them get revenge for UW's fluke game winning interception last year and to pound Dennis the Menace into retirement.
4) USC: For all of the off-season controversey surrounding the program, and the daily embarassments caused by their new coach, this is still USC and there is still talent on the roster. As one of my favorite TV characters, Kenny Powers from Eastbound and Down said: "Fundamentals are just a crutch for the talentless." These guys still know how to play football, but it will be interesting to see how the transition from Pete Carroll to Kiffin goes. With the postseason not in the picture, can the stay motivated?
5) Washington: We all know about the Dawgs three-headed monster on offense. But what about the defense? Can anybody who isn't a Husky diehard tell me the name of one person along their defensive front four without looking at a roster? We've all seen what has happened to our Cougs the past two seasons with a porous DLine. Teams will rush for 4.5 YPC on these guys, keep Jake & Co. off the field and just smash the defense! JasonUW, does our bet still stand on which of our teams will have a better defense? Check out the shirt below that I saw some guy wearing at Safeco on Sunday.
6) UCLA: Slick Rick has pulled in back to back Top 25 recruiting classes. Recruiting has been something of a knock on his career until this UCLA stop, in that critics say he only won with the previous coach's players. I would have to imagine this starts to translate into success on the field, and in my mind, their special teams will be the difference for them this year.
7) Oregon State: I'm going to do it, I am picking against Oregon State. I don't see the Brothers Rodgers being able to carry an offense anchored by an unknown under Center. They will be pounded by Boise State, Texas Christian, and Oregon, but I do see them knocking USC off in Corvallis again. One thing I would pay to see sometime soon is for Coach Wulff to run up the score on that clown Mike Riley, who has embarassed CPW the last two seasons. Last year I remember Riley not punting or going for a a FG in the final two minutes, but going for the end zone instead.
8) Cal: They have Shane Vareen and what I believe should be a competitive defense. But with Kevin Riley still taking snaps, this team reminds me a lot of UCLA and ASU the past two seasons. Not enough offensive fire power.
9) WSU: I don't know where our two or three conference wins are going to come from, but I think we're better than the Dennis and the Devils. I love the chip that is on our shoulder and the confidence these players have. Like I said yesterday, it has to happen between the ears before it translates to wins on the field. Hopefully my trip to Tempe is more memorable than my visit in 2006. Cougs knock off Cal, ASU, Montana State and either SMU or Oklahoma State, and CPW's contract is extended.
10) ASU: How is it that Arizona State isn't attracting the best talent year in and year out? They have easiest admission standards, the beautiful surroundings (well not the campus itself, but you know) and the coeds. Are they in the same boat as the University of Colorado in that those are major selling points to pitch prospects, but once they get kids on campus they can't focus on football? I'm not sure, but whatever it is it isn't working. After hearing how DE sandbagged Mike Price for the job prior to the 2007 season, I've wanted nothing more than utter failure for him. Hear's to a crappy season Dennis!
Now batting for WSU FB Blog....Longball:
Longball in the house to tell you how its all gonna shake out this year. Get your bookie on the speed dial cause these picks are GOLDEN!
1. Oregon: What an off season, eh? Still, Chip showed last season that even the mother of all catastrophic starts wasn't enough to derail the talent they've collected in Eugene. What looked like sure disaster turned out to be a championship season. I would love to see Stanford take them down in Autzen this year, but as Rick James would say... Revenge is a crazy drug, man.
2. Stanford: Harbough has done a Pete Carroll-esque job on the Farm. They still haven't shown the consistency to take it to the next level, but this could be the year.
3. Arizona: They have some kind of surfer-dude, X-Games guy for a QB and a vein-popping jerk for a coach. That's the most lethal combination in sports right there. I expect the Cats to still be in the running for the roses in November.
4. Washington: Hate to say it, but they are going to improve on their 5 wins and as much as we like to point out how close they were to 2 or 3 wins, they were also really close to 8. Remember the Cougs in 2000? Everyone talks about Locker, but I seem to recall they have a rediculously good young running back too. Now, whats his name... I think it's a former president, or something... Van Buren? Nah, oh well. We'll all know it soon enough.
5. Oregon State: I'm not sold on the Beavers at all this year. They have some nice pieces like the Rogers bro's and one of the most dominant D-tackles in the land, but QB is a ??? and that's never a good thing in the Pac-10. What I do know is none of that ever seems to matter and Mike Riley will have them winning ball games by late September.
6: USC: Party over. What a run though, eh? We saw last year that their talent just isn't THAT much further ahead of the rest of the league any more.
7. Cal: I keep hearing how talented Cal is, but the Kevin Riley era has been one flop after another. The Cougs get them on November 6 this year, right about the time they are taking their annual late season nose dive.
8. WSU: Fine, make fun of me all you want. I may be setting a record for eternal optimism here, but if its true that even a broken clock is right twice a day, I should be right about twice a decade. I think we will win some games because I expect our defense to be good. Not just improved, but actually good. Our offense will struggle mightily, but they will put it all together just enough times to sneak us, if not out of the Pac-10 cellar, at least half way up the steps. We will all be saying wait til next year, and this time we'll mean it.
9. UCLA: This team is actually talented and Slick Rick knows what to do with talented teams. I just won't believe it til I see it. Something about putting on the powder blue just seems to turn 5* All Americans into heartless sissies.
10. ASU: And it all comes crashing down in Erickson's final year in the desert. He shoulda held on to that job in Moscow with both hands!
So there you go. But that's just our takes. It will be fun to see where we were close and where we missed wildly. PLAY BALL!
Enjoy your Thursday, and as always, GO COUGS!
So there you go. But that's just our takes. It will be fun to see where we were close and where we missed wildly. PLAY BALL!
Enjoy your Thursday, and as always, GO COUGS!
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