Sunday, March 01, 2009

Win and We're In

(The Dance, that is)

Terrific Sunday Morning to you, Cougar Nation.

And how about our boys?

Well, all the stuff about needing to win five before the end of the year is looking like it may not be that necessary.

You want to know what we have to do to dance in a couple of weeks?

Beat Washington on Saturday.

Were we to upend the puppies at Muttlake on Saturday, we would finish the regular season batting .500 (4-4) versus top 25 competition.

When you add that to a .500 conference record as well as a HUGE four game win streak to end the year and you have an NCAA tournament team. Bar None.

So, the ball is squarely in our court. (USC's loss to Stanford and UCLA's win against CAL were both VERY helpful. Now, if the Beavs can eat one against Oregon, we'll be really set).

And the good news is, we're playing among the best basketball west of the Mississippi right now. So strap it on and enjoy the rest of the ride.

Barring complete collapse, I think we just secured an NIT birth tonight.

Congrats Seniors!!!


Anonymous said...

I hope u are right about this, how confidence are u? so what happen if we beat uw but osu beat the ducks?do we still have chance?

BH said...

I might have jumped the gun JUST a little.

If we beat the Pups and then lose in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament, we would be 17-14.

That just doesn't look too good--there aren't enough wins and there are LOTS of losses.

What an Oregon State loss does for us today is make it MUCH, MUCH harder for us to slide to the 8th spot--even with a loss next Saturday. And we really don't want that 8th spot since Stanford matches up with us REALLY well.

So, here's my somewhat revised take:

If we beat the U and finish 7th, then we would need to obviously beat Oregon in the first round of the tourney. That would push us to 18 wins. In the next round, we'd either play the U or UCLA. I don't think we'd have to win that game, but we'd have to be competitive to affirm our closing run.

If we beat the U and finish 5th or 6th, then I think we have to win that first round game. That will PROBABLY mean that we will have to beat CAL for the first time or ASU for the third time.

So, in some ways, it might behoove us to win, get 7th, win in the opening round and then hang tough in the second game against a ranked opponent on a neutral court (I don't think we'd be penalized for losing to UCLA in LA).

Bottom Line: Just win on Saturday...

BornCoug said...

Yep, they have to win on Saturday. I don't think a sub-.500 Pac 10 team has gone to the Tournament. It's a tough road now though any way you shake it but to even have an outside shot is pretty amazing.

Anonymous said...

Didn't a sub-.500 team got in last year? That was Arizona though, so they have the name and the number 1 ranked SOS too. I think we need to get to 19-20 wins, in order to REALLY be looked at.

BH said...

If memory serves:

1) Oregon got in at 9-9 last year in spite of losing in the first round of the Pac-10 tourney (to us). They were like 18-13 overall.

2) ASU did not get with a 9-9 conference record. I can't remember if they won a tourney game or not.

3) Arizona got in at 8-10. On top of that, they lost to ASU twice.

So, ASU is the measuring stick for getting screwed

Soze said...

Honestly, I'd rather win the NIT than go to the NCAAs! I mean, we'd probably be a "favorite" in the NIT, plus we'd get to see some more home games.

calebcherry said...

I thought some of you would enjoy this clip my friend took of the remaining seconds of the game. I know the broadcast version is better quality, but you can't beat hearing and seeing the emotion from the heart of the student section.
prepare to get those goosebumps again.

Anonymous said...

Ducks Won!!!!! Yeah!!! Go Cougs!!!

Stefen said...

calebcherry...that video was money.

BH said...

We're in a really good spot now withe Beavs loss. It ALMOST feels like this (an NCAA birth) was meant to happen.

Sure looks like we're going to be the #7 no matter what happens on Saturday. But now, we really could finish #5 if we beat the pups.

This is going to be a fun but long week.

Anonymous said...

How come noone from espn start talking about us possibly in the tournament? If beat uw, hopefully somebody from espn will put us in the conversation.

Anonymous said...

If we do beat UW we can finish 4 ways:

1) Zona beats Cal and Stanford, which i dont think will happen but could, we get 6th regardless of how USC and Oregon State do with a tiebreaker for both teams due to our splits with UW or UCLA

2) Zona loses to Cal or Stanford and Cal finishes below ASU, we get 5th with the tiebreaker with for our sweep of ASU

3) Zona loses Cal or Stanford and Cal finishes above ASU we finish 6th with tiebreakers beating USC and/or Oregon State regardless of how they finish

4) Zona loses to both Cal and Stanford, we have tiebreakers on both USC and/or Oregon State regardless of their finish

So basically if we do upset in Seattle Saturday we will finish .500 in the pac-10 having beaten the 3 ranked teams plus Zona down the stretch, getting us a bye in the pac-10 tourny and I think makes us a lock for the NCAA's

AtlantaCoug said...

I realize that ESPN does not actually make the NCAA selections but reading this: and still seeing that we are not even mentioned in a 'too little too late' sort of way, is discouraging. But I tend to still think we have a shot if we beat UW and win a game in the Pac 10 tourney.

Sedihawk said...

Let's see what Lunardi says in his Wednesday bracketology. If we're not even in the last four out, then it can't be looking good.

But I don't know how any of us can hang our hats on beating UW right now! They are going to win the pac-10 title for a reason. They are not last year's UW team. Sure, we're playing well and with heart, etc, but straight up, I don't know if we can beat them. Especially in their house. They have only dropped one game at home this year, a game they absolutely kicked vs. Cal early in the year. That's it. They certainly aren't going to lay down for us.

I am with BH though. Beat UW, finish 5th in the conference and get two Pac-10 tourney wins? I HOPE/BELIEVE we'll get an at-large. But who the hell knows. Who would have thought AZ would get in last year at 8-10 while ASU was passed up at 9-9?? That is still a major WTF from last year.

Anonymous said...

Looking back in the season, I think the blow over LSU and OSU hurts the most, it was sickening to me. We can definitely use those 2 wins...

Longball said...

I gotta say, UW wrapping up the Pac-10 title on Saturday does not bode well for us. It means they should be confident and loose. Plus we are a hot team that is about to go into the chiller of not playing for a week, while UW gets a scrimmage against Seattle U. With so much on the line for us, in a hostile house playing a deep and confident team it will be a herculean task to stay close on Saturday. No matter what happens on Saturday, we have to keep fighting because while the NCAAs are likely going to pass on us, we have a great shot to get a HOME GAME in the NIT. One more chance to Freil the heat.

Lucas said...

Anonymous, are you drunk? How do we own a tiebreaker against USC? Lunardi updated Bracketology this morning, yikes

Anonymous said...

Your right Lucas, I was getting my info from the article the Oregonian put out which originally said we split with USC ( ), not thinking about it I went off that, my apoligizes, blame the people who were probably high not drunk when they wrote that

Jimmy Mac said...

No one should be worried about what espn is saying at this point. We're not going to the dance unless we beat the Huskies this weekend. If we beat those clowns on Saturday I'm confident that all of a sudden we'll grab the attention of the national media as a contender to go to the tourney. But unless we get a win in Seattle and go 9-9 in the regular pac-10 season, no one is going to talk about us as a NCAA team. If AZ has the same record as us, no doubt they get a bid over us solely because of their national reputation.