| 25 September 2009
Hello Followers. Well, last week was an absolute disgrace for the Bhagwan Coug-A-Sutra. After having a two season win streak predicting the Cougs fortunes, I now stand 1-2, having lost three out of the past four. Moreover, in addition to flailing for the second straight week on the Cougs, I was also Stooped by Stoops, Riled by Riley, and the list goes on and on (L-O-S-E-R).
But, before I completely dust off the “Sutra Sucks” Banner in my garage, I’ve decided to “go out, stick to the game plan, execute, and let the chips fall where they may..” So, here we go....
WSU-USC. So, we know now that Barkley is scheduled to start. I mean, “Barkley is scheduled to start?” Now, when I see a guy that is clearly not 100% start a gimme game, then two thoughts start to burn at the forefront of my pea-brain. Thought #1: Pistol Pete must be 100% sure that we are not going to touch Matty Boy all day long. Otherwise, why the hell take the risk of getting him hurt the week before they play CAL?
Issue #2: The ONLY reason why you even take the chance of losing Barkley before the CAL game is that you are also 100% sure that you are nowhere near the football team you need to be to compete for a (conference) championship.
With that in mind, here is my assessment of USC’s apparent self-assessment:
1) Even with a healthy Mays, this is the worst USC team since Carrol’s first year.
2) USC is extremely vulnerable offensively--averaging a paltry 15.5 points a game against teams not named San Jose State. In addition, the Trojans trailed that game 3-0 into the second quarter (the point, they’ve been a poor offensive football team for 9.5 of their 12 quarters).
3) USC lacks both the deep threat and #1 rushing attack that they’ve had in years past and that makes dominating even marginal teams a much more difficult prospect-at least for now.
Now, on a surface level, playing a team that is ranked second-to-last in total defense would sure seem like a nice recipe for a break-out, doesn’t it? And in all probability, the Trojans will probably have their way (and them some) with our Crimson-clad lads. But for me, the key of the game is how OUR OFFENSE fares against their defense. So, if we can move the ball and score even to a moderate degree (like 20-21 points), we will leave with a respectable loss. And really that is the goal.
But, unfortunately, I am of the mind that Marshall will have a really, really tough night on Saturday. And, while I am hopeful to see Tuel make his debut under the bright lights of LA if that happens, I think the game will be well out of hand by then.
Avoid this one, Vegas crowd, USC and WSU will be a push: Trojans 55 Cougs 10
Cal @ Oregon: When I made the pick that the Ducks would win the Pac-10, I had them winning the conference with a 10-2 record with losses to Boise State and Cal. While I don’t think the Ducks will win the Pac-10, I am still certain that they will lose this game. Cal 41 Ducks 21.
AZ @ OSU: Oregon State has a bad secondary. Arizona has a bad quarterback. With the Beavs at home, all the intangibles favor OSU. Beavs 24 Arizona 17.
ASU @ Georgia: Dennis, Dennis, Dennis. Next time schedule an opponent before you go to SEC land! Good thing the Dogs are dominant, or this would be really, really ugly. UGA 31 ASU 21
UW @ Stanford: Expect a shoot-out in this unexpected battle for, dare I say it, early season conference contenders….In the end, Trees have too much O. Stanford 38 UW 31.
Canes 31 Va Tech 18: The speed and greed is back in Miami. And college football is better when the bandits are good.
Enjoy the Games and Go Cougs!!!!!
SeanHawk sez:
Hello Coug Nation! Happy Friday. What a busy time for Cougar football, no? Crazy week last week with all the off-the-field stuff, just too many things to list here. Then they come back in dramatic fashion to actually WIN a football game? Then this week, the sadness of James Montgomery's life-threatening injury (wow) and the announcement of Phase III, public-style. And oh yeah, a bunch of guys are injured again. May you live in interesting times, sure, but this is getting a wee bit outta hand?
Now, ah yes, USC. Hey, I LOVE LA! At least I love the beaches anyway. When I was a kid my Mom lived in Southern California, and I used to get shipped off with my sister for the summer down there. Lots of time in the sand and the sun, in the land of beautiful people. Santa Monica, Malibu, it didn't matter where we went as long as we had a cooler full of food and drinks, and of course, my sister and I had our boogie boards. That was all that was great about SoCal. It was a wonderful experience, eye-opening to say the least as a young lad. But the sports scene? Well, I don't know. I mean they have the world-famous Lakers, but I wasn't down there during the NBA season, so they didn't really stir up the juices (and I loved my team formerly known as the Seattle Sonics, I think?). While I loved going to Dodger Stadium and seeing how many 1) Dodger dogs I could eat in one sitting, 2) counting how many fights would occur in the nosebleed sections as the drunks would build their liquid courage/muscles during the course of a game, and 3) counting how many fans would arrive in the 3rd inning and leave after the bottom of the 7th, still, I never "felt" the LA college football schools. Maybe it was the fact that they always whipped the Cougs, and of course, being a Northwest boy myself, I just couldn't get into them. I guess I held on to my Northwest ties, through and through, and never went for that whole LA college thing. Which is good.
Anyway, after that major sidetrack of insignificance, see, I'm basically just delaying the inevitable for this week. I'm sorry to say it Coug fans, but we are in for a beating this week. Now three weeks ago, I would have thought hey, maybe we won't see an upset, but I could see us playing extremely tough down there and keeping it awfully interesting. Now? Uh, no. Here's three reasons why:
1) WE WON'T RUN THE BALL - Three games ago, with a healthy offensive line and a full stable of running backs chomping at the bit for carries? I would have loved the idea of coming into LA and establishing a nice, steady ground game on the Coliseum grass. But now? Not so much. First the offensive line has lost a couple of key pieces in Zach Williams, as well as other guards like BJ Guerra and Andrew Roxas. All this depth I/we were excited about up front coming into the season is already being severly tested, and that is a bad thing to be dealing with going into facing an angry, big, strong USC defense that refuses to be run on! For USC is giving up just 1.6 yards per carry, truly an amazing number. Now that likely won't last all season, and they'll be "well into the 2's" by the time the season gets more legs. But they are a serious brick wall in terms of running the ball. This is bad folks. Get ready for a ton of 2nd and long/3rd and long for our offense, all evening long.
2) WE WILL STRUGGLE IN THE PASSING GAME - This is in the same bed as item #1. But the trickle-down from not being able to run the ball is going to make for a tough night for Marshall Lobbestael. And to be fair, Lobbestael has been, well, not all that sharp in his young career. And by sharp, I don't necessarily mean yards or TD's. I mean accuracy, in terms of completion percentage, and right now it's a problem. Last week, in his first start, Marshall completed just 46% of his passes, 24-for-52 overall. And outside of the two TD drives, right before halftime and at the end of the game, his numbers were borderline-terrible, to the extent in the third quarter Jimmy Walden on the radio broadcast bellowed "THEY NEED TO GET MARSHALL OUT OF THIS GAME!" It was that bad. But it's not just this year either. Last year, outside of the Portland State debut, Marshall was a less-than-50% passer in his last three starts. And even though he was knocked out of the game vs. Oregon State, he was struggling to a 7-for-17 clip at that point when the knee was blown. This year he's hovering barely above 47%. QB coaches, offensive coordinators, head coaches, Beano Cook/Lee Corso, etc, they will all tell you the same thing about completion percentage - 60% is the "line in the sand" so to speak. Meaning a QB with a lot of worth, a QB who gives you the best chance to win, traditionally will complete at least 60% of his throws. But Marshall isn't even at 50%. Given the issues on the offensive line right now and given the likely scenario where rushing yards will be at a premium, that puts Marshall in predictable passing situations. That means that USC's pass rushers can pin back their ears and attack with all their anger and fury built up from a week of everyone telling them how awful they are after losing to UW! Get rid of the ball Marshall, as fast as you can.
3) WE WILL STRUGGLE TO STOP THEIR GROUND GAME - While our lack of offense will be a huge problem in this game, the flip-side is that our defense isn't exactly ready to step up and stop USC's running game. Why? Well, it's hard to judge, as USC isn't exactly Hawaii and SMU in terms of their offensive schemes. This is NOT run-n-shoot. Maybe run, but very little shoot in the USC attack. Instead, USC is going go all "student body right, student body left" for four quarters. And with a banged up/inexperienced QB situation, why should they do anything else? Besides, USC's strength is a strong, deep running game. And after their loss to UW, there has been a lot of criticism hurled towards USC and their play-calling on offense. Such as, why in the world they went away from their running game when it was so successful early on? You may not remember, but USC was already over 100 rushing yards by the middle of the SECOND QUARTER last week, yet they went away from it and asked QB Aaron Corp to do too much in his first-ever start.
But it's not just about USC. It's about WSU's rushing D, or lack thereof. Think back to Stanford in week one. The defense was relatively fresh and healthy coming into the opener, the game was at home, a rookie QB was starting for a team that was going to lean heavily on their running game. You knew it, we knew it, the American people knew it - Stanford was going to try and run the football. And you know what? We didn't stop it. Stanford hung 288 rushing yards on the Cougar D that day, averaging 6.9 yards per carry(!). 6.9 per carry from a team that loves to run it, hell, needs to run it to be successful. Yeah yeah, I know, there were a couple of long runs from Toby Gerhart that might have skewed those numbers, but still, uh, yeah, those runs do count in the totals. We were pretty healthy on defense, we knew the running game was coming, and we still couldn't stop it. Doesn't exactly spell confidence for this week, does it?
In the end, USC will run, run, run, and we will not stop it, not stop it, and not stop it. LA 45, Pullman 9.
Other games:
Cal @ Oregon: Yes, I'm patting myself on the back for picking Cal to win the PAC-10. Looking pretty good right now. They have cleared a major hurdle after winning a grinder in Minnesota last week. Jahvid Best and Cal's offense will have their way with a less-than-stellar Duck D. And we know former Coug and current Cal D-coordinator Bob Gregory has figured out the Oregon spread in the last few years. Berkeley 34, Eugene 24.
AZ @ OSU: Don't know what it is, but the Beavs don't seem like a 9/10 win outfit this year, do they? I know it's still September, and they usually get it cranked up after the first 3 or 4 games. But something just seems off this year. But they still have enough this week against an Arizona team struggling on offense, now without all-world TE Rob Gronkowski for the season with a bad back. Corvallis 23, Tucson 16.
ASU @ Georgia: I think the SEC is a tad overrated this year. It's deep and talented, absolutely, but UW hung with LSU and UCLA won at Tennessee. So I don't see a humiliation here. Still, the Bulldogs have more talent and the patented SEC speed, and they rise up to beat down on Dennis the liar. Athens 22, Tempe 17.
UW @ Stanford: Let-down city for the pups. Emotional night game vs. LSU, the first win since 2007 vs. Idaho, and then the crazy upset over USC. Now they trudge down to Palo Alto with the needle on empty to face a strong, tough, hit-you-in-the-face Stanford team with a brutal running game. Stanford is a couple of phantom penalties at Wake Forest to being 3-0. UW is "sore and tired" per Steve Sarkisian after Wednesday's practice? Uh-oh. Palo Alto 37, UW 20.
National Game: Miami @ Va Tech : Agreed with the Sutra here. It's actually fun to have "speed and greed" back and relevant. And boy oh boy are those kids FAST. The 'Canes are, in fact, back, while Va Tech hasn't looked all that great. It's tough to win at Va Tech, but the Canes have enough. Miami 24, Blacksburg 20.
All for now. AS ALWAYS, GO COUGS!
Longball's Football Friday picks:
This week I am having a lot of trouble finding anything that bodes well for our Cougs. USC is angry and refocused after their shocking loss in Seattle. They are at home and most likely have Mays and Barkley back. Meanwhile, our Cougs have just about lost all their running backs and everyone on both lines. As I see it, if the Huskies with Jake Locker at home against a USC defense without Taylor Mays scored 16 points, it is entirely possible the Cougars will post the first ever negative score in the history of football. Plus our entire team will ger hurt, including the equipment managers and most of the traveling fans. Silver lining? We will continue to learn and grow, I think.
USC 45
WSU -14
Let's take a look round the country:
Cal @ Oregon; Ducks 42, Bears 38
I think the Ducks finally figure it out with the Autzen noise machine behind them. The Pac-10 is eliminated from the National Championship race.
AZ @ OSU; Beavs 28, Cats 25
Can't get a read on either team. Beavs get the edge just for being at home.
ASU @ Georgia Dawgs 31, Devils 24
UGA will control the entire game, but the score won't show it.
UW @ Stanford Pups 35, Furd 21
I think UW has heard enough about let downs not to have that happen. That being said, this team has yet to leave their own living room. Of course, Stanford is the least disruptive road environment in the Pac-10.
BYE: UCLA
Gotta give the edge to Neuheisel in this one.
And finally, of national importance:
#9 Miami @ #11 Va Tech; Canes 31, Beamers 14
Big discrepancy at QB in this game if you ask me. Is it enough to overcome a rocking and rolling Blacksburg?
Enjoy the weekend and GO COUGS!
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