Football Friday, Week VIII of XII

Happy Hallows Eve Coug Nation!  Time for another Football Friday.  Here we go:

COUG-A-SUTRA SEZ:

Hello Followers.  Hope you are having a great week.

Well, if you remember back to the Hot Days of August, I gave you the games that I thought we could compete in. I also gave you the games where we have no chance.  And, if you remember, I coined the whole thing “hope” or “nope.”

And so, for the fifth time this year, this Saturday brings about a game that I put in the “Hope” column. So, the main question driving this Halloween Edition of Football Friday is as follows: “Was Sutra trickin’ or was he treatin’?”

 

Wanna know?  Then read on...

Nation, there are several very, very, VERY good reasons to think that this game will wind up being like all the others.  I mean, when you look at the games that we have found promise, we were already SLAMMED before we started to make up ground.

So, yes, we played well in the second half against Hawaii after being down 35-3 (Ditto last week versus CAL).  And yes, we did some really nice things against SC after being down 21-0 in the first.  And sure, we played a nearly competitive game against ASU—as long as you ignore that small point that we had SIX takeaways and still lost by 13 points at home.

And, of course, there’s that injury bug—the latest being the loss of the “Louie Louie” that we sure didn’t want to go.

At the same time, it is important for you all to remember why it is that I had HOPE at the beginning of the year.  My insane reasons for thinking that we could win this game were as follows (phrased in the present tense because all of my assumptions still stand):

1. Notre Dame ALWAYS plays down to their competition.  Outside of an impressive shut-out of Nevada, they have done nothing to dissuade me or the rest of country from that fact.
2. Notre Dame will NOT take us seriously.  You need proof—how about all of Fat Boy’s comments this week about jumping on us early.  I mean, it’s one thing to say that you’re looking for a fast start, it’s another to go on record on Tuesday talking about wanting to give the entire roster confidence.
   
   
   
   
   
   
3. This game is letdown city for them. At the beginning of the year, I figured that ND would be in a good position at this point.  I also liked their prospects to beat Boston College last week—which was important for the letdown factor because BC has been to Notre Dame what the Defeateds were to us during the Tricky Ricky years.   Sure enough, ND got over the hump last week.   I’m still thinking there’s a letdown factor that compounds the joke that they think we are.
4. Coach Paul and company have had this game circled.  National TV, huge chance to make a splash, yada, yada, yada.  Whatever we do this week, it will be the best our coaches have to offer.
5. The last two weeks of October and the first week in November always have a W-T-F outcome. Last week, Iowa State at Nebraska.  Who knows where it comes from this week?
6. WSU has faced better teams than Notre Dame.  And, assuming that they don't fold in the first quarter, my sense is that, all things considered equal, there will be a feeling among our boys of "these guys just aren't that great."
7. We are starting to figure it out. Before the year began, I knew Cal would drill us - even coming off a bye week.  But I also figured that we would begin to develop an offensive identity right around this point of the season.  And I think I was right about that.
   

So, now that we are at game week, this game comes down to a few basic keys.

Special Teams—Specifically punt and kick return teams.  Last week, our special teams gave up one touch and set up the first one 4 seconds into the game.  IF you take those touches off the board, CAL scores 35 points—and that was against CAL’s 1’s the entire game. To win, our special teams have to be near perfect given our limitations (e.g. no returns past midfield).

Run Defense.  Clausen and company are going to light us up, there’s no way to stop that.  The main concern should be whether or not they also average 5+ yards a carry in the process. If Armando Allen is able to get into our secondary consistently, we are going to get crushed. Alex Hoffman-Ellis is going to have to make reads like he’s a Valedictorian.

First Quarter Possessions.  My sense is that we are going to get 2 to 3 possessions in the first quarter.  We MUST not only win the toss and get the ball, we must score a touch on AT LEAST one of those possessions, and we must move the ball in the others.  If we don’t put 7-10 on the board in the first quarter, and if we have a couple of three and outs early, we have NO chance.

Offensive Line Penalties.  Might go without saying, but ND’s defense is ready to be exploited.  But for us to do so, we cannot give away yards by stupid false starts and holding penalties (Tuel should be able to run on these boys a bit).  If we can keep the offensive penalties to under 5, we’ll move the ball.  And we’ll score.

When you put all of those huge IFs together, it’s easy to see that even staying reasonably close is a tall order.  But, I happen to be a believer that our offense is starting to figure it out.  I also believe that our defense can play its bend, bend, bend, bend, bend, bend, bend, bend, bend, bend, BREAK style with some success against a team like Notre Dame that doesn’t have the speed of an Oregon, CAL, or SC.  And I also believe that these kids are really, really close to finding a result that they can hold onto.

My prediction:  Notre Dame leads 17-7 after the first quarter.  We trade touches in the second quarter and add a field goal right before the end of the half to trail 24-17 at intermission.  After Notre Dame takes a 31-17 lead early in the third, we break a long touch to make it 31-24.

Later, after trailing 34-24 in the fourth quarter, we score to make it 34-31 with about five minutes to go.  Eager to show that Michigan was an aberration, Touchdown Charlie elects to throw the ball for all three downs on ND’s subsequent possession.  Thanks to a holding penalty, ND goes three and out.  We get the ball back with 4:00 with a chance to win the game. And we’ll run the no huddle to perfection.

Cougs win a 38-34 thriller that costs Charlie Weis his job.

Enjoy it Nation, because the national media won’t say one good thing about us after we win. It will all be about Charlie, Charlie, Charlie, Charlie.

Elsewhere:

Oregon 38  SC 35.  Frankly, I think SC is going to get drilled.  But, if there’s one thing we know about the great champions—they’re ALWAYS right there at the end. And so will SC in this one.

CAL 31  ASU 13.  Sullivan is not any good.  And CAL’s offensive line is now physical enough to wear down a very tired ASU defense.   ASU starts looking for Rob Akey’s phone number.

OSU 41  UCLA 14.  Arizona scored 27 points last week on ULCA in spite of 5 offensive turnovers.  Sound familiar?  Canfield makes claim for best QB in the conference.

Idaho 31 La Tech 28. Akey picks up the phone to return ASU’s call.

Texas 39  Clay Bennett State University 29.   “I’m a Man” shows he needed his Dez Dispenser.

Enjoy the Games.

LONGBALL SEZ:

Yeah, that's right, I'm callin it! They'll be singing the "Waving Song" all night long in Stillwater. 


SEANHAWK SEZ:



What's up Cougs?  Lots to chew on this week.  I don't know, is it me or has this been a long, slow week?  I'm feeling worn out.  Maybe the fall back of the clocks on Sunday will put some pep back in my step?  Anyway, that's all off-topic.  See, I'm trying to put off this week's analysis of what is going to happen.  Why?  Because I don't have the best feeling.  Here's why:

1) We are so flippin' young.  It is still somewhat amazing to go look at our depth chart and see all the kids.  Just TWO senior starters on offense, one less than the amount of freshman who will start tomorrow (three)?  Just three senior starters on defense?  Young, young, young. 

2) We are so flippin' injured.  Louis Bland just adds to the pile of the wounded.  His loss is going to hurt, big-time.  More so than I think people realize.  He is strong, quick, smart and versatile, plus a tremendous leader.  We already saw last week that without him, against a pretty good offense, we had very little hope of making big stops when it matters. 

3) We have barely competed against the better teams on the schedule.  Stanford?  39-13.  Oregon?  52-6.  USC was "close", I guess, if you can call losing by three touchdowns a close game.  But Cal last week was more of the same.  Big plays from every direction in a 49-17 crusher. 

The bright news is that young Jeff Tuel looks like he is going to be, well, special I guess is the best way to say it.  The facts are facts, and he went on the road as a true frosh and put up 354 yards on Cal.  The team did have a season-high 440 yards of total offense, which used to be about TWO games worth of offense for this program.  And again, that was on the road against a pretty good Cal team.  The offensive line health has improved, and so I think we'll start to see this type of output for the rest of the season.

Here's the problem though.  Jimmy Clausen, the ND QB?  He's really good.  OK, so he may not be the greatest QB who ever walked the earth, but the guy is super efficient.    65% completion percentage?  16 TD's to just two interceptions?  He just doesn't make mistakes.  And his weapons, jeesh.  Golden Tate is fantastic, already with 52 catches and eight TD's in just seven games.  He is just six catches shy of the 58 he turned in last year.  And that tight end, Kyle Rudolph, is just a match-up nightmare.  6-6, 260 and can jump out of the gym with supreme athleticism.   

I'm sorry Coug Nation.  I do believe we can move the ball on their defense, and it may even be a bit of a "shootout", at least for a while.  We'll be sky high for this game, really the closest thing to a bowl game we can experience right now.  But I can't imagine how in the world we are going to be able to hang with these guys defensively.  Did you see the defensive stats last week vs. Cal?  The official numbers said zero sacks, but also ZERO QB HURRIES.  They didn't even breathe on Kevin Riley, and he tore the Cougar D to shreds.  Why?  Well, you can't sit there and say "well, it's because we sold out against the run."  Cal ran for a gaudy 309 RUSHING YARDS on the Cougar D! 

It's simple, really.  Can't stop the run?  Can't put pressure on the opposing QB?  You are in big trouble.  So I guess the bottom line is that it doesn't matter how much better our offense plays.  We can't stop an offense like Notre Dame, and we won't tomorrow.  Irish run away and hide, 47-21.

Texas continues to be a factor.

All for today.  ENJOY THE GAMES, and GO COUGS!