Football Friday - Week VII of XII

Hello Followers.  Hope you’ve had a good end to your week.

Well, as we head into week VII, I had hoped that we might get a bit of reprieve from the injury bug.  But as the old saying goes, “Geriatric is, as Geriatric does.”  And boy, does it seem like we’re getting injured crawling out of bed in the morning, or what?

Anyhow, with our DB’s depleted, our offensive line still in shambles, a young freshman QB in tow, and our MLB out for the game, it just doesn’t look good.

That  said, as I’ve said in previous weeks, there are three things to look for in this game:

1) Ball Control—e.g. Can we move the ball?  If we can muster a few nice drives—a la the USC game—it will signal that we have the capacity to turn the corner a bit offensively this year.  As Sir Vincent noted in his blog post late Thursday, CAL’s 3-4 is a unique ameba in the conference.  So, if young Tuel and company can figure out the stunts that they are going to see (ditto the O-Line), then that is indication that some solid maturation is happening.  And, if that is happening, we know that the coaches are doing some good things.

2) Points.  Like I’ve said, the moment we lay 21-28 points on a real BCS type team, we’ll be ready to win a football game.  For me, I’m looking for 21 this weekend.  If we get it, throw a stinking party.

3) Injuries.  As I noted at the beginning of the year, we have NO HOPE of winning this game.  But, Notre Dame is another story.  Granted, it’s a long shot, but if we escape this game intact, an upset special next week is possible.

In the end, I think our offense still has WAY too long to go to keep this close.  CAL blows us out early (21-0 1^st quarter) and wins comfortably:  45-12.

Elsewhere:

Quack 38  UW 17.  The Dawg dream starts to really end in this one. While the Huskies are improved, and although Locker is truly special, this is the type of team that should run all over that weak run defense.  Oregon is darn good, and the Huskies appear destined for the 5-6 type season that we had in 2000 before our breakout in 2001.

ASU 17 Stanford 16.   Boy, is this a tough one to call.  While I am still digging on Luck, the master T.G, and company, I’ve grown old enough to know the following:  A good defense will usually beat a good offense.   After last week, I’m not sure that Luck rebounds.  This one should be ugly to watch (1-2-3 kick, 1-2-3 kick, 1-2-INT; 1-2-3-kick)

Arizona 31  UCLA 13.   This just in:  Arizona is better than we thought they were going to be.   Conversely, UCLA is exactly what we thought they were—a contender for doormat status.

USC 34  Oregon State 13.   I give this game to the Trojans simply because I think the revenge factor will cause them to NOT let up like they did against ND.  That said, Baby Quizz is still the type of back that will give Troy fits—especially if they attack USC’s speed vertically.  Plus, Canfield is the type of dude that will make a big play on the road if the Beavs are in it late.  The difference in this game: MB will carve up that suspect OSU secondary.  But if he doesn’t, it will be Halloween (orange and black) one week early.

Nevada 31 Idaho 28.  Give this one to the home team as the Wolfpack have played some AWFULLY good football teams so far.  That said, with the Bowling Ball (Woolridge) squarely in tow, I expect Akey’s boys to fight ‘til the end of this one.

Enjoy the games.

SEANHAWK SEZ:

Hi.  First off, a video from this week's Cougs All Access FSN show.  Some good, quick highlights to chew on from the first half of the year, including the Eric Block hit from the Stanford game that I haven't yet seen online?  But also a few minutes of a film session with the coaches and players that I thought was interesting.  They rip on Malik Roberson for doing some sort of shadow-boxing type thing on the sidelines.  :) Finally, an interview with Jeff Tuel in his dorm room.



You'll notice that young Tuel is on the laptop, checking out some websites, and what do you know?  It's Cougfan.com that he's reading.  Just goes to show you, folks, these kids, they DO read this stuff.  Keep that in mind if/when you want to tear an 18-year old college kid a new one for making a mistake in a game?

Anyway, the game this week.  The Berkeley Bears in all their fury take on the rag-tag collection of kids from the Palouse.  What do you think?  Well, I know I still have nightmares from 2008, but the Cal game might be the worst of any game of them all.  Yes, even worse than the USC embarrassment.  Why?  Because it was early in the year, just the 2nd game of the Wulff era.  The Cougs looked like they had a little bit of promise coming off the Okie State loss, where you thought "hey, they clean up some special teams issues, and Rogers gets a little more comfortable back there in the pocket in this new offense, Brandon Gibson doesn't drop a couple of catchable deep balls, who knows".........

Oh. 

Anyway, that was LAST YEAR.  As we have seen in '09, even as beat up and young as this team is?  The have improved.  The scores aren't nearly as embarrassing.  And that trend will continue this week.  And, you know, I think we play with 'em for a while.  I really do.  For a few reasons, actually, so here we go:

1)  Cal's offensive style is a decent match-up this week.  Now how in the world can this be, after last year's horror-fest of big plays?  Well, I look at it this way - Cal is definitely more of a traditional offense compared to the run-n-shoot/Oregon read option spread.  Of course, they have great speed and fantastic depth with Jahvid Best and Shane Vareen at running back.  They will roll with an attack that is certainly explosive, to say the least, but they are also more of a USC or Stanford style, compared to the gadget offenses that have torn the Cougs apart in '09. 

2) The defensive scheme will be ready for this game. All along, from the day they hired Jody Sears and Chris Ball as co-defensive coordinators, they have said that they want to put eight men in the box, attack the line of scrimmage and play "pressure" defense.  But today, not so much. I think defensively the coaches have seen enough to know how to keep things respectable, and that is to NOT let your inexperienced kids get exploited out in space!  The 18 turnovers that the Cougs have created, tops in the PAC-10 thus far, well, that isn't a misprint.  They have figured something out, in terms of how to make it work with this group of athletes.  They will continue to drop a ton into zone coverages, everyone stays at home, keeping the game in front of them, and we'll see what happens.  Most of all, the scheme right now is designed to NOT GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY, and they will do everything they can to limit those "home runs" from Cal.  Maybe they can keep Best and Vareen from going bananas.  Maybe they frustrate Kevin Riley into trying to force some things into a lot of coverage, picking off a mistake or two along the way? 

3) Finally, offensively, things will be better.  I look more for what Jeff Tuel did vs. USC than anything else.  The offensive line will be better with Zack Williams returning, always described as one of the best linemen on the team outside of Kenny Alfred.  I look at the rushing totals early in the year - 104 vs. Stanford, 176 vs. Hawaii - and I think we'll see something similar, and certainly better than what we saw vs. ASU's nightmare.

But alas, in the end, it's not going to be enough.  See, Jeff Tedford has done something pretty cool down in Berkeley.  He's BUILT A PROGRAM.  You know, where they recruit good athletes every year, redshirt as many as they can, and they just cycle the talent through, finally starting and contributing as mighty upper-classmen?  I think we can all look at Cal's defense, for example, and look at the ages.  Everywhere you look, it's upper-classmen here, upper-classmen there, etc, etc, etc.  It's not by mistake, it's by DESIGN.  That, my friends, is how you build out an upper-division program.  You build the depth, you let the kids grow up in the program, and by the time they get to be juniors or so, they are competing at the highest level with the utmost in physical strength, size, and overall, confidence. 

Anyway, it will be a respectable showing (even though nobody can see it on TV!), but Cal will simply make more plays, on both sides of the ball.  And coming off the bye, I do believe something good will happen early, MAYBE EVEN A FIRST-QUARTER SCORE!?!?  Nah.  Anyway, Cal runs away in the 2nd half, 38-16.

The Others:

Quacks 34  UW 21.  Agree with Sutra here.  This matchup for the Husky D is bad, bad, bad. Oregon will do what they want with that "shell game" of an offense, and just too much speed in green(or is it black this week?  Who the hell knows).

Stanford 23 ASU 16.   The Devils are rocking a front seven as good as any around, but the offense, eh.  Sullivan is awfully ordinary, and I don't think he'll get the miracle this week.  Stanford is reeling a bit, and wow do they need this one.  They get it with a hard-nosed victory.

AZ 37 UCLA 17 - The Mildcats continue to put up silly videogame offensive numbers, and UCLA just doesn't have enough O to hang very long in this one.

USC 30  Oregon State 20.   I know people are screaming REVENGE!!!!!!!!!  But I think the Beavs slug it out with SC and hang in there.  But it will ultimately boil down to who makes more plays at QB, and Matt Barkley's performance vs. Notre Dame last week clinched it for me.  He has arrived folks.

Idaho 27  Nevada 25 Nobody else picking the Vandals?  They have something special going on, and one way or another, they pull this thing out.  Granted I can only name a couple of Vandals (Enderle, Woolridge, and Shiloh Keo, who ran afoul of the law this week).  And I will say this - IF IDAHO WINS THIS WEEK, THEY GET #25 IN OUR BLOG POLL THIS WEEK! 

The who-gives-a-rats-ass-weak-sauce-national-game:

TCU 31 BYWHO 21.  Seriously, outside of TCU-ville and our Mormon friends, who cares?

That's it.  Enjoy the weekend, and of course, GO COUGS!