| 02 October 2009
And welcome to another addition of Football Friday. It's officially Duck hunting season, as the Cougars take their rolling triage on the road to Eugene. Another week, another red shirt being held over the fire. This week, it's freshman tailback Carl Winston. Wulff has gone on the record saying he will see some time against the Ducks, helping out our depleted running back corps. Winston was electric this summer and could be a nice change of pace to the more patient style of Tardy and the power style of Mitz and Richmond. I hope this signals a dedication to running the ball this weekend, not only to help Jeff Tuel in his first start, but also to keep that Duck offense off the field, wear down the Gang Green D and wear out their crowd. That's right, when you play at Autzen, you are up against the Ducks, and their crowd.
By now I am sure you are all tired of hearing how loud Autzen is. Well, I am sorry to report that it is true. I have been to multiple Cougar and Husky games there and I can assure you, the crowd noise is indescribable. When the Cougs are on offense the crowd will reach a decibel level that is unsafe for children, and when the Ducks are about to snap the ball, it will get so quiet you could hear a cricket fart. The crowd noise is relentless, oppressive and intimidating, and for a freshman quarterback making his first ever start I cannot think of a more challenging atmosphere.
So, you may wonder, why even tune in for this one? Oregon looked amazing last week, and I don't mean just their throw-back uniforms which were a thousand times better than their usual clown suits. Meanwhile, the Cougs have been decimated by injuries on both lines, in the secondary, at running back and at wide receiver. It all seems to add up to a major blowout. But as Lee Corso would say, "not so fast my friend!"
Read on.....
While an atmosphere such as Autzen can disrupt a visiting team's communication and play calls, it can also be just as motivating for the visitors as it is for the home team. And believe me when I tell you, the only thing in sports that rivals the explosion of your home stadium, is the sudden hush of a visiting stadium. Mike Price used to dread taking his team to Stanford because the cavernous old Stanford Stadium was so quiet his teams came out flat and stayed flat. If there is one thing the Cougs won't be short on this week, it's adrenaline. Autzen itself will provide plenty of that. What remains to be seen is if this young team can maintain its composure and focus against the onslaught of decibels.
So, yes, the crowd noise is real and cannot be exaggerated, but it is something that can be overcome, or even benefit the Cougs. Now the Ducks, on the other hand, they provide some very real problems that we may not have answers for. Cal scored 3 points last week and they had Jahvid Best and an experienced QB. That probably has to rank as the greatest defensive accomplishment by a team so far this year. Oregon also has something USC did not have... game film on Jeff Tuel. He is not going to surprise anyone with his feet this week, so we can't just count on him bailing us out every time the pocket collapses.
The Cougs have a few things going in their favor too this weekend. The Ducks should be on major let-down alert this week after a season defining win and a conference doormat coming to town. In addition, Tuel has absolutely re-energized this offense and given this team something to rally around. And finally there is one thing this team does well, create turnovers, and that is crucial to staying in tough road games. Let's hope we find some ways to run the ball, eat clock, and come up with a few big turnovers on defense, otherwise this could get out of control, 2008 style. My prediction?
Ducks 55, Cougs 24
Now a look around the country...
UW @ Notre Dame - Irish 30, Dawgs 28
Not sure if the Huskies can play well away from Montlake, but also not sure Notre Dame can put anyone away until the final play of the game. Locker vs.Clausen should make this a great matchup and a toss-up at best.
USC @ Cal - Cal 35, USC 30
Which one of these teams is in worse shape? So far Cal's skid is just one game, while USC's offensive woes are clearly a pattern. USC's reign of terror is in major jeopardy.
Oregon St @ ASU - Devils 42, Beavs 21
Beavs may be rebuilding afterall. Sparky should have an easier time with the Beavs at home after playing TOUGH on the road at Georgia.
UCLA @ Stanford - Trees 28, Bruins 24
If Cal, USC, or Oregon falters is it one of these two who take their place at the top of the Pac? Enthusiasm Unknown to Mankind (EUTM) continues to work wonders in Palo Alto.
Colorado State @ Idaho - Vandals 34, Rams 30
A Longball Special - Akey's army keeps rolling as they black out the dome in the 'Scow!
And the BIG one this week...
Oklahoma @ Miami - Canes 38, Sooners 17
I am a big believer in Sam Bradford and he ain't playin. Miami is angry and at home.
That's all for now, folks. Have a great weekend and GO COUGS!
SUTRA SEZ:
Hello Followers. Hope you’ve had a great week.
As for me, well, I’m still wallowing in the glow of last week’s enticing loss to the USC Trojans. Simply put, it has been a long time since I’ve seen as much positive energy about the Football program as we have seen for the past week. And for good reason.
For the first time, Paul Wulff and his staff have been able to show that they have a firm and positive grip on the direction of the program.
Among the positive highlights we have seen:
1) A defense that is tied for first in the conference with 11 take-aways.
2) A defense that includes a budding star at defensive end, the most promising middle linebacker we’ve had since Will Derting (Hoffman), an inspired, veteran corner-safety (Chima) that is fostering the development of the unit (as well as the redshirts who are supposed to be GREAT), and a solid group of DTs that is doing enough to enable consistent pressure on the ball.
3) Good play from underclassmen at the skill positions.
4) We have the makings of a winning quarterback for the first time since 2003.
As a result of these positive developments, we have moved in a few very, very short weeks to a team that looked certain to finish with an 0-fer, to a team that has an outside shot of reaching the desired 3 or 4 win plateau we imagined at the beginning of the year.
But for us to do that, a couple of important things need to happen:
1) We need to get healthy on the O-Line and Stay Healthy on Defense.
2) We need to start scoring some points.
3) We need to start scoring some points.
4) We need to start scoring some points.
5) We need to start scoring some points.
This last point can’t be emphasized enough. Because, let’s face it Cougar Nation: Over the past 6 games, our offense has scored 16 versus UW, 14 versus Hawaii, 13 versus Stanford, 20 versus Hawaii, 17 versus SMU, and 6 against USC.
Let me say it again: ONLY ONE TIME IN THE LAST SIX GAMES has our offense scored twenty points! And in NONE of those games have we scored 3 offensive touchdowns (or more).
Obviously, for us to win, that has to change. And so for the rest of the month—and perhaps the year—the ONLY benchmark we need to look at is our tally on the scoreboard: As soon as we put 28 offensive points on the board, we’ll be ready to win a Pac-10 game.
But like they say, where growth and development is concerned, the progression of a young Football team usually goes something like this: ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK.
And followers, last week was the one giant step forward. But, this week is going to be two-steps back.
The reason: As we saw in the Hawaii game, on defense, we have decent, hard-hitting pursuit when running North-South. Where we remain beyond vulnerable is from sideline to sideline.
Unfortunately for us, Oregon is not only fast north-south, but the read option is just deadly in making us react quickly horizontally as well as vertically. Consequently, don’t look to see us reverse our trend of slow starts. In fact, I think we can expect to see this one get out of hand real quick.
Toward the same end, we have all seen that Jeff Tuel has the potential to be really, really good. But one thing us old fogies know by now is that there are very, very few cases where young quarterbacks play well in places like Autzen Stadium—especially when they make their debut (and yes, this week IS the real debut—starting is different). So, when you factor in that our injuries on the O-Line are going to result in schemes that mimic Vanilla’s Vanilla, then it’s really easy to see why we’re in deep, deep trouble this weekend.
So, lest you all think that a UW-USCesque letdown is waiting to great Oregon, think again. A defense that held CAL and its Heisman trophy candidate to 3 points isn’t going to allow much against a Freshman QB and a tortured O-Line. This one IS going to be ugly folks.
But, please, take the loss for what it is, AND STAY POSITIVE. If we can stay healthy, next week is a game we have a chance to steal.
Ducks 52 Cougars 7 (The scoring streak extends to 7!!!!!!!)
Elsewhere:
Bears 17 USC 13. Been back and forth on this one. For me, the bottom line is that SC just hasn’t shown enough consistency on offense to make me think that they’re going to rebound like they always do. And while CAL’s showing last week suggests to me that Riley just isn’t a championship caliber quarterback, I think a key USC turnover in the 3rd quarter will provide the second touchdown that CAL needs to get over the hump.
ASU 21 Beavs 17. The Beavs are going to come out circling the wagons like they always do the moment we all write them off. But, in the end, ASU’s defense is just good enough, while the Beavs’ porous secondary gives up one too many big plays.
Stanford 31 UCLA 10. Bruins have made some nice hey so far in the season. Unfortunately for them, here’s to thinking that Luck finally puts a game together.
Notre Dame 31 Washington 28. Clausen’s hurt, the Irish are at home, and the Dawgs are starting to look like the team “that we all thought they were.” Nevertheless, one of the reasons why the Irish aren’t elite is that they can’t maintain focus against teams that they should beat handily—especially at home. This game could easily be an upset special. Hopefully, we won’t have to hear the barking.
Miami 20 Clay Bennett University 17. If this game were in Okey, it would be a poster-child game that ESPN could use to hype the Red River classic in a couple of weeks (Okey would roll). But, with the game at home, I’m thinking that the Bandits recover to win a carbon copy of Okey’s loss to BYU—setting up a nice game in the Holiday Bowl between Okey and the USC-CAL winner.
Enjoy the games and STAY POSITIVE!!!!!!!!
SEANHAWK SEZ:
1) They beat Purdue at home, winning a tight one 38-36. They were outgained by almost 100 yards (451-356), and 36 points at home, to Purdue? Really? At last check, Purdue is 1-3, including a loss - AT HOME - to none other than Northern Illinois.
2) They beat Utah at home, a good win in which the nation's longest winning streak came to an end - 16 games. They won 31-24 on a late interception to seal the deal, and also had a special teams TD by Walter Thurmond III - who is now out for the year with a knee injury. And Jeremiah Masoli was awful throwing the ball, just 4-for-16 for 95 yards (yuck). So again, they aren't perfect.
3) Now, the scary game. 42-3 vs. Cal in a game nobody saw coming. Sure, some people picked Oregon to win, but not to the extent that they did. I mean 42-3 is such a runaway laugher that it's almost impossible to look at and say that Oregon really is THAT TEAM, you know?
And to be honest, I wonder if the Cal hype machine was just turned up a little too high. I mean sure, Cal crushed Maryland at home to open the season. But Cal is always tough at home vs. non-conference teams, at least in the Tedford era they are. And have you seen what Maryland's done since then? They beat James Madisen, 38-35 in OT. And that's it. Included is a loss at home to Middle Tennessee State. So that Maryland team wasn't a big deal. Then you look at Cal rolling EWU at home (duh), and then they went to Minnesota. Minnesota is having a good year, 3-1 and all that, but they are still trying to rebuild from a 1-win disaster a couple of years ago. Yet still, Cal and Minnesota were tied at 21 going into the fourth quarter, before the Berkeley Bears pulled away.
So, the question is, do you focus in only on their last perfomance, that whitewash vs. Cal? Or shouldn't you also look back at the whole body of work and realize that Oregon hasn't been all that?
But that said, here are three things the Cougs MUST DO if they hope to hang around in this one:
1) STAY AT HOME DEFENSIVELY
Oregon and their tricky offense can be a nightmare. Chip Kelly has that engine purring now after some serious sputtering early on. The hard part about defending Oregon is that there are always so many different things they can throw at you with any given play, especially with Masoli at the controls. At the snap, he can either hand if off to the back, run an option to a slot guy, keep the ball himself and turn it upfield, or he can even pull it all back out and throw the ball on the run! There are just so many things to key on, that it is absolutely, positively CRUCIAL that you don't get a young, over-aggressive defense who commits too hard to one specific thing.
They eat defenses like that for breakfast, pure and simple. So everyone - all 11 guys on defense - must be disciplined and stay at home. Don't freelance and try to get on ESPN, for they will find the guy who steps out on his own and absolutely bury you.
2) MORE LONG DRIVES PLEASE
One of the best things to take from Jeff Tuel's debut? The length of the offensive drives. The Cougs had three different Tuel-led drives that went at least 10 plays, and that is the kind of thing that they need this week. The last thing we want to see is a long string of three-and-outs by a young offense trying to get their feet on the ground in the craziness that awaits them. And the long drives don't even have to lead to points, really, just as long as they can eat some clock and move the chains, for that will keep the ball out of Masoli's hands and, hopefully, give Oregon less opportunities to put points on the board.
The really scary part is that as each game has gone on for Oregon, they have in fact played better as an entire offense. Since the Boise disaster, overall they are averaging 397+ yards per game, including the huge 524 yards last week vs. Cal. Masoli, after slogging through the early part of the season, exploded with an outstanding, efficient game. Oregon did what they wanted, basically, and that is the biggest concern of all. But of a little concern on trying for long drives??......
3) LET THE KIDS PLAY!
Yes, Jeff Tuel looks promising. Yes, he's got a lot of growth ahead. But still, it appears like he can handle a decent amount of the offense. There have been a few reports this year that he's been really into extra film work, etc, above and beyond some of the other QB's in the program. So what the heck, shove him out of the nest, see if he can fly/put him in the moat, see if he can float/whatever. But don't totally "dumb down" the offense just because of his inexperience. Grippi already hit on this last night, that it appears they are trying to simplify some things in the offense. Understood, but don't make it too simple! Let's see what he can do beyond just handing it off 3/4ths of the time. For if they do make a change like that, then what's the point of even playing him right now? He's only going to get better if they give him the chance.
Now the bad news. These young Cougs are just so beat up, per Bud Withers the other day, we are the most beat-up team in the conference. And now we go into this game with the definition of a patchwork offensive line? The entire left side of the line will be brand new? All that, and a young QB making his first-ever start? Gulp.
Back to Oregon for a second. I watched most of the Boise State ugliness, and I also caught most of the Oregon - Cal game. The biggest difference? Sure, Masoli was a different guy, looking at ease and in control. But the biggest thing to me was that O-line. They looked lost, fat and slow vs. Boise State. They looked lean, mean and in control vs. Cal. NIGHT AND DAY. And that, my friends, is the biggest reason we are in some serious trouble this week.
Oregon is going to control the line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball. I do believe we'll put up a couple of TD's, and maybe a field goal as well (and a missed extra point from Nico. What is with him and the "yips" on the extra points these days?). I think Oregon might be a little flat as well, given the emotional high of last week vs. playing a team they beat 63-14 last year. I'm going Oregon 38, Cougs 16.
Other games (and these will be in "bad newspaper headline" style, just for fun):
UW @ Notre Dame: "IRISH EYES ARE LAUGHING: WEIS' WARRIORS WHIP HAPLESS, HOPELESS HUSKIES, 35-17."
UCLA @ Stanford: "CARDINAL SIN: GERHART GOES GAGA, GASHES BELEAGURED BABY BLUE BRUINS, 28-13."
OSU @ ASU: "DENNY'S DELIGHT: DEVILS DEVOUR BATTERED, BRUISED BEAVS, 31-23."
USC @ CAL: "GOLDEN(BEAR) SHOWER: TEDFORD'S TROOPS TOPPLE TROJANS OF TROY, TWENTY-THREE(23)-TWENTY-TWO(22)."
Biggie:
Oklahoma @ Miami: "SOONER SUCKFEST: STOOPS' SOLDIERS STORM SOUTH BEACH, CRUSH COCKY 'CANES, 33-21."
All for now. ENJOY YOUR DAY, and GO COUGS!
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