Wednesday, March 19, 2008

2nd Season

Well, here we are Cougar Nation....41-2, sitting as the #1 seed in the West Region of prognostication, and you know what that means?


Absolutely nothing.

But, where our Cougars are concerned, the second season means everything. And this weekend, in particular, is THE opportunity that these wonderful kids have to enter and live in Cougar lore forever.

Win this weekend, and you become the only Cougar team since the 1941 squad to advance past the second round.

Of course, to do that, we have to beat the mighty Winthrop.

Now, if you all think that Brinkhater has such a little life that he has actually watched any Winthrop film, then you are right. In fact, I have literally spent about 20 hours over the last couple of days breaking down game film..

And here's my braniac take from that effort:

For Winthrop to win tomorrow, they are going to have to play GREAT. And we are going to have to play HORRIBLY.

Basically, Winthrop is an undersized and underskilled Oregon with Bigs that are neither as powerful as any in the PAC-10 nor can they help spread the floor a al Super Marty Leunen...
What they are going to do is send their version of a Taylor Rochestie-Derrick Low half-breed and see whether or not he can get off with Weaver guarding him. Is that gonna happen or fly?
In a word, "NOPE."

The only way that we lose this game is if we start off trying to establish Baynes in the low block. We do that, we run the risk of getting stale, and if they are able to get hot early, we could find ourselves in an 11-4 hole that would be tough to get out of.

But, I just don't see it.

Look for Weaver to come up big on both ends of the floor, and as you all will see, the guy who will make this tournament for us is Taylor Rochestie. Look for him as a returning (to the NCAA) junior to be confident and very loose. He'll get 16 and 5 tomorrow.

The game will start tight as I think that Winthrop is going to throw a match-up zone or some wrinkle at us to try to confuse us a bit. And it may work for all of about 10 minutes.

Cougs win going away in the 2nd half in a virtual redux of last year's win in Sacto v. Oral Roberts:

Cougs 69 Winthtrop 54.

Enjoy, enjoy, enjoy, since Saturday will be the time to bite your nails off..


Rooster said...

20 hours of game tape BH? That's dedication to the blog brother. Your major contributor award for the month is coming in the mail. And way to wrap it up in 100 words or less.

Have you watched 20 hours each of Notre Dame and George Mason yet?

Anyway, now that I've filled out my brackets and its too late, should I have respected the Big East with 8 teams in the tournament? I picked G-town to go to the Elite 8 but I wasn't counting on the others to do much. Especially the last 4 Marquette, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Villanova. They had great season records but they got beat up in league. The top 4 G-town, ND, Louisville and UConn averaged 4 losses each in league play. I didn't have the time to research who each of those losses were to but since there are 16 teams in that league, 12 of them having marginal to poor league records, I took the approach that there were just 4 mediocre teams that stood out as being a little less mediocre than the others. That is the West Coast Bias in me talking. The other approach could be that there are 4 great teams that stand out as being just a little better than the other great teams and my brackets are down the tubes.

I'm looking for your read on this BH. Give it to me straight.

AtlantaCoug said...

I agree with your breakdown BH, but I just love/hate the 'anything can happen in one game'. One of those Winthrop shooters goes unconscience from 3, or Low goes ice cold and Baynes fouls is enough to drive one to drink...more. But I would be more then surprised if we don't just win but hold comfortable 5-7 point lead most of 2nd half.

Sedihawk said...

It's what the tourney is all about ATL! Anything can happen. That's what is so great/sucky about it. You better bring your game or you will be on the first flight out!

Sedihawk said...

And Xavier escapes! Hat tip to Georgia, winning the SEC and scaring the heck out of a 3-seed.

Σ (FormerlyKnownAsBrinkHater) said...

Okay, maybe it wasn't 20 hours, but I sure am ready to draw up some x's and o's to beat those clowns.

As me said last week, don't take my advice regarding this tournament.

That said, outside of Purdon't who is KILLING Baylor right now, I picked all of the Big 10 teams to do well. Why? Because they are just like us.

Delibarate defense-oriented teams do well in this tourney because nobody changes their tempo: They play like themselves no matter what.

That, dear friends, is why I think that SC is toast today after their victoire against KSU. After all, if they did bad against us, what will they do against Wisconsin?

Lets just win this one!!

Rooster said...

I think Marquette just blew my theory out of the water. Hopefully Kentucky is WAY worse than I expected. Otherwise my short-term financial future is looking pretty lackluster.

Σ (FormerlyKnownAsBrinkHater) said...

The key to the second half is to rebound and get Taylor off....we're getting consistent good looks and they're making tough shots.
I like our chances but am getting nervous

AtlantaCoug said...

BH you are an idiot savant. Right about the Cougs...(almost) right about USC... And I agreed with your Half time analysis. But who would have figured we would hold them to 11 points in 2nd half? Nice Job Cougs.

Sedihawk said...

Roost, who did you end up with in your pool? Didn't you do a "bid" pool where you bought teams?

What a 2nd half. Offensively just free and easy and flowing. Defensively we just didn't give in. How many times did you see Winthrop force up a shot with 5 or less on the shot clock? That's a sign of a team that is playing fantastic defense! Unbelievable. A lot like the 2nd half vs. Cal, only this was much, much worse. I guess when we stormed out to go up 36-29 after the half that you could see we were taking control of this MO-FO.

As BH and I talked tonight, you could tell even though it was tied in the 1st half that we were going to be fine. There was no way they were going to keep hitting those crazy shots with a few seconds on the clock. You know the law of averages eventually catches up to you when you are taking bad shots, and that totally nailed them in the 2nd half.

Anyway, THRILLED with the W! Already looks like it will be Notre Dame too as they are laying it to G-Mason. Should be a pretty good match-up. Now go watch film on Notre Dame BH! We must kill Rudy.

Rooster said...

Hawk, not me buying teams. I only did 2 brackets for 2 different pools. I have 36 cases of beer on the line for one of them. One set I'm picking UCLA over Tennesee and the other I have Memphis over Kansas. For one half of a game I thought I was going to be a genious picking Georgia to defeat Xavier and then reality set in.

Did anyone notice how much more comfortable the Cougs looked tonight vs. last year. Tourney experience came through.

Can we please get that scouting report on ND BH! I'm nervous because I think I put my foot in my mouth about the Big East.